What a wonderful spell of weather we have enjoyed through April.
After months of wet weather, the sun has shone, the ground has dried up in time for lambing, calving and planting spring crops.
For the vast majority of folks locked down in their homes the good weather has been a bonus providing you are lucky enough to have a garden.
In many ways the farming industry is in a very fortunate position compared to many other sectors who have seen their businesses close, their staff furloughed and watch helplessly as their cash reserves dwindle away.
However, there is no doubt the lockdown is working.It has ensured the NHS and its wonderful staff have not been overwhelmed by Covid-19. It has also slowed the virus infection rate, although the horrific death rate is still stubbornly high.
But, the economic cost to the country of the lockdown is truly staggering. The UK economy is heading for the biggest fall in GDP since the 1930s depression and Government borrowing is likely to rocket from £40 billion to £275bn. Unemployment is rising fast and it is estimated that 9 million people are on the Government’s furlough scheme costing up to £50bn a month.
The hard question the Government now needs to answer is how to roll back the lockdown and get the country working again without the infection rate exploding once again? There are no easy answers.
For the livestock industry the biggest challenge has been consumers switching from eating out to eating at home. According to AHDB the eating out market was worth £81bn in 2019 and accounted for 21% of beef, 15% of lamb, 14% of pork, and 13% of potato sales. However, the market has virtually gone.
For the beef sector that switch has seen a huge surge in demand for mince but plummeting demand for roasts and steak.That has forced processors to mince high value cuts leading to lower carcase returns.
With distancing rules likely to be required for the foreseeable future you cannot see the restaurant and cafe trade resuming any time soon. As a result, AHDB, Quality Meat Scotland and Meat Promotion Wales have launched a £1.2m promotion to try and boost the sale of the more expensive cuts and improve returns.
Horticulture faces an even bigger challenge in recruiting fruit pickers with Eastern European workers unable to travel to the UK. The farming unions’ Pick for Britain campaign has brought thousands of enquiries from furloughed UK workers looking for work but it remains to be seen how many will actually turn up and stay the full season?
This situation will test Home Secretary Priti Patel’s claim that we don’t need eastern European labour as there are millions of people in the UK available to do this work. By the end of the summer we will know if she is right or wrong. If she is wrong UK immigration rules must be rethought.
In my view the farm sector’s biggest challenge will come when the crisis has passed. With the economy cratered, Government borrowing at record levels and UK Treasury looking for savings, farm unions will find it incredibly challenging to hang on to current levels of farm support.
George Lyon is a former MEP. He is a senior consultant for Hume Brophy, and sits on the board of levy body AHDB.