New season lamb prices have made a firm start to the season as lambs have been slow to reach markets and abattoirs, according to the latest market commentary from Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).
Throughout Scottish marts, prices for new season lambs have been making around 350p per kg liveweight in mid-May, which is up about 10% on the year and around 25% on the five-year average.
Meanwhile, GB deadweight prices reported by AHDB traded at 727 per kg kg dwt for R3L grades in the second week of May.
Recent data showed that the number of new season lambs traded in the UK in the four weeks to May 10 fell by nearly 25% compared to the same period in 2022.
Hogg availability has fallen back from its peak at Ramadan and Easter, limiting the total number of prime sheep on the market.
Iain Macdonald, market intelligence manager at QMS said prices for lambs saw a strong uplift through March and the first half of April, trading back towards the highs of spring 2021, supported by seasonal demand from Ramadan and Easter.
“While lamb remained an expensive protein, on average, it is possible that it was viewed as a seasonal treat, supporting demand at Christmas and Easter,” said Mr Macdonald.
“Cool spring weather may also have helped sales over the Easter period, with leg roasts the most popular cut at this time of year.
“Through April and into May, prices paid for GB lamb carcases at Rungis market in Paris have held firm, suggesting that export demand remains robust.”
Mr Macdonald said that New Zealand’s export sales to the UK had been sluggish in the run up to Easter, with its processors targeting the EU, US and China ahead of the UK.
“HMRC figures show volumes arriving from New Zealand contracted by 29% from a year earlier in the January to March period,” he added.
“In addition, imports from Australia nearly halved, and the decline from the Irish Republic was 29%.”
Turning focus back to the outlook for the new season lambs, evidence has pointed to the slow arrival of new season lambs south of the border being a reflection of poor ewe condition in autumn 2022 due to the drought and high feed costs.
In Scotland, the slow arrival of 2023 lambs could reflect the impact of a cool spring on grass growth, with the potential for availability to catch up quickly following some warmer weather in May.
“It is very early to be making an assessment of numbers coming forward at markets in Scotland given the generally later marketing pattern compared to England and Wales,” said Mr Macdonald.
“If we look to the December Sheep and Goat Inventory results for Scotland, the female breeding flock did continue to show a slight downwards trend, falling by 0.7% year-on-year. This suggests that an increased lambing rate would be required to deliver the same number of lambs as in 2022.
“With Islamic festivals moving forward in the calendar each year, Eid al-Adha celebrations are set to begin on June 28 this year. Given that June is when seasonal supplies are around their lowest of the year, the slow arrival of lambs this season could result in a very tight market in mid-to-late June.”