Vladimir Putin is untouchable.
There is no opposition in Russia’s rubber-stamped parliament. Nothing like Prime Minister’s Questions where he is questioned. No independent media where he is criticised, questioned and held to account.
He can never be voted out as elections are totally rigged in his favour. Protesters are dragged off the streets and locked up if they peacefully protest. Opposition leaders are already in jail, have fled abroad or have died in mysterious circumstances.
Today’s Russia is a police state.
Untouchable and with total power, Putin will be in the Kremlin forever and there is absolutely no way he can be pushed out. No way whatsoever.
Actually, I believe nothing could be further from the truth.
I’ll even go as far as saying that Putin’s regime will crumble like the Berlin Wall did.
And by that, I mean when you least expect – and overnight.
Putin’s recent state of the nation address was all full of pomp and bluster. I watched and listened. Actually, I was not focused on the nonsense he was spouting, I learned nothing new, in fact I could have pretty much written the script myself for what he was going to say.
No, I was focused on the hundreds of people in the audience. MPs, army generals and all sorts of officials. Their faces said it all.
Yes, I accept there were a few in there who were lapping it up and looked proud as Putin banged on about how evil the west was and how Russia was under attack. But the vast majority looked extremely uncomfortable. Their faces said “This is a nightmare. What are we doing?”.
They didn’t believe a word of it.
Totally and utterly deluded, surrounded by yes men, I think that Putin himself, apart from a few loyal believers, is the only one who doesn’t realise his regime is nearing an end.
He is not, I guess – and neither are the Russian people – being told just how big the casualties are on the Russian side. Independent international bodies state that the death toll of the Russian armed forces is in the tens of thousands. Something the Kremlin will never admit.
So why now do I feel that his regime will fall? Two small yet very significant things happened recently to have persuaded me. Persuaded me just how paranoid and fearful this house of cards really is.
Firstly, the banning of Russian officials from travelling abroad. The Kremlin being terrified that they will defect, speak out, never come back. This is classic Soviet policy.
And the straw that broke the camel’s back moment? For me anyway, it is the following. A 12-year-old girl was taken from her father and put into care, because she drew an anti-war picture. Her school called the police regarding the picture which said: “No to war!”
A school reporting a child to the police for painting a no-to-war picture, this alone proves how messed up Russian society has become and the monumental task that lies ahead to change all that.
The girl’s father was accused of “bad parenting”. He was eventually arrested for discrediting the Russian army.
The mind boggles. How desperately sad.
The Putin regime is so strong and powerful? No. The reaction regarding the girl’s painting is not the action of a strong regime, it is the action of a very fearful regime, fearful of their own people.
Today’s Russia is broken. We, the west, have not done that. Sanctions have not done that. The Kremlin has done that all by itself. It has isolated Russia from the modern world.
There is less freedom of expression in Russia today than there was in the mid ’80s.
Putin’s downfall will not happen by elections as they are totally rigged. Nor will it happen by mass protests on the streets, the window for that has long been slammed shut. Even those who hold a single-person silent protest are arrested.
No, it will come from within. Voices of dissent and much bickering have been reported from army generals; many have since been removed from their posts. And yet the Kremlin still tries to get more and more young men to sign up to go fight. Cannon fodder, nothing else. And not sustainable.
I believe it will come from the men with money. The men who are worth untold billions and have been sanctioned by the west. They prop up Putin, they bankroll him to a certain extent, and right now they have lost most of their assets.
It will be interesting to see who in his entourage, ie generals or diplomats, join the call for change. Not that they care about democracy, they just want to be allowed out to play with their money again.
I think it will be bloodless. I think a group of highly influential people will eventually get together and tell him “The game’s up – you have to leave… or you’ll be pushed”.
If it’s well coordinated and they show a resolve of iron and have the backing of as many at the top as they can get, I think it is all very doable. They know Russia is evolving backwards at an alarming rate, it’s a car crash, isolated and going nowhere fast.
Think all that is impossible? Possibly. But again, never forget, no one but no one predicated the Berlin Wall would fall as it did and the despicable East German regime crumbled with it.
The irony is, Putin has brought this on all by himself. Over the past 10 years he successfully took control of the state, parliament, courts, police, he stifled everything. He had it all.
But he then made the biggest mistake of his life when he invaded Ukraine. It has been an abject failure, and of course he did not expect for a second the western response.
Invading Ukraine will be his downfall. Had he not invaded Ukraine, he had things so tightly wrapped up at home he could have stayed in power for decades.
For what it’s worth, even after he is forced to stand down, I still don’t believe he will end up in the Hague. He will be protected by the state in return for standing down.
Oh, and just wait for the aftermath. The big names will desert his legacy like rats fleeing a sinking ship. It would not surprise me one bit if Putin’s mouthpiece, sorry, “ambassador” at the UN, and Foreign Secretary Lavrov – denounce him when he falls.
And after the garbage they have spouted about defeating neo Nazis in Ukraine or that “Russia does not attack civilians” they will completely change their tune, saying they didn’t buy into it.
It will be a classic case of “It wasn’t me mate, I was only doing my job”.
So, to the big question. What comes after Putin?
I’m deeply worried about that. Not worried by someone worse than Putin, for I don’t think that will happen. I’m worried about what happens to Russian society and its people.
For example, I can just hear western leaders who definitely “do not get Russia”.
“Putin is finally gone, Ukraine has peace, and there will be fresh elections in Russia. Russia has democracy now. Isn’t it all wonderful.”
We, the west, will then step back and let them get on with it – and the ’90s will be repeated all over again.
The entire structure of Russian political and official life is corrupt to the core. The task of change and reform is colossal. Not to mention changing the mindset once again of millions of Russians who are anti the west.
A whole new generation of schoolkids and even teachers has been fed a diet of ridiculous propaganda. That needs to be addressed ASAP, but I cannot begin to explain how daunting all this is. What needs to be done with a post-Putin Russia will actually make the ’90s look like a walk in the park.
And unless the west finally grasps this, then little will change, and 20 years from now we could well be right back where we are now with a Putin mark II.
I have no idea when Putin’s mafia state Russia will crumble, but as previously mentioned, like the Berlin Wall, it will, and when you least expect it.
Do not be surprised if you wake up one morning, turn on the telly or pick up a newspaper and bam – he’s gone.
When journalists are not being beaten, arrested, locked up or killed anymore, I will go back and visit countless friends of almost 30 years that I have not seen since before lockdowns.
I miss my friends. I miss Russia. But not in its current form.
I dedicate this column to Vladimir Kara-Murza. A Russian/British former journalist, he was jailed just days ago for criticising the war in Ukraine and Russia’s human rights abuses. He was sentenced to 25 years.
The sooner this sickening regime crumbles, the better.
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