It’s gearing up to be one of the most monumental elections in living memory for all sorts of reasons, but what do the good people of Aberdeen think about the politicians knocking on their doors and asking for their votes?
There’s really only one way to really find out.
Over the past week or so, I’ve been spending time out on the streets of our city with teams from Labour, the SNP and the Conservatives, to see for myself how things are going for the MP hopefuls chapping diligently on our doors.
I started off with Labour…
A trip around Midstocket with the Labour team, and a handy spatula
The first thing which Labour activist Sandra Macdonald took out of her car was a spatula.
But no, we weren’t involved in some street cooking exhibition; instead, we were on the campaign trail with Aberdeen Labour activists in the Midstocket area of the city.
And, amid the leaflets, posters and other promotional material, as the General Election beckons, there’s a good reason why Mrs Macdonald has produced a spatula before she and her colleagues prepare to knock on doors and offer political material to residents.
It turns out, sticking your hand through letterboxes comes with an element of danger.
As her husband Lewis, the former MSP and election agent for Labour’s Aberdeen North candidate, Lynn Thomson, told me: “During a previous night canvassing, I put my hand through a letter box and was bitten by a quiet, but determined dog.
“I ended up in Accident & Emergency at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, needed stitches and you can still see the mark. So it shows that you have to be ready for the unexpected.”
It’s a pertinent message, but time is running out for the activists who have been pounding the pavements in recent weeks, attempting to shift hearts and minds with a variety of strategies, none of which appear to have made a decisive difference.
Having been on the canvassing trail with Labour’s Mrs Thomson, the SNP’s Stephen Flynn and the Conservative John Wheeler, there’s a febrile atmosphere among constituents and plenty of sceptics expressing the view: “They’re all the same.”
The tide is definitely turning, argues Labour candidate
As Mrs Thomson told me: “There are a lot of undecided voters, plenty of SNP and Conservative supporters who feel let down by their parties, but don’t know where to go. Some have switched to Labour, but a lot of others have still to make up their minds.
“The atmosphere on the doors has definitely changed, though. It’s chalk and cheese, night and day. I was a bit wary [of the hostility] in certain places a few years ago.
“But we’ve not just knocked on thousands of doors, we have spoken to thousands of voters and what we are hearing is that many people are coming back to Labour.
“However, there is a big SNP majority here [Kirsty Blackman won the 2019 election in Aberdeen North with 54% of the vote], so we have to keep working very hard.”
No triumphalism or despondency in Labour camp
If the opinion polls are to be believed, Labour is poised for a landslide victory across Britain next Thursday, with Sir Keir Starmer in pole position – by a margin of between 15% and 20% – to move into Downing Street at the expense of the Conservatives.
However, despite a plethora of accusations and bitter wrangling, covering everything from the future of oil and gas to the National Health Service and a cost-of-living crisis, allied to such issues as war in Ukraine and Brexit bubbling away in the background, there was no sign of triumphalism from the Labour team, nor any visible sense of despondency from their political opponents.
Out and about with the SNP
So, how are things working out for the SNP on the streets of Aberdeen?
I went out with Aberdeen South candidate Stephen Flynn and his team to find out.
One SNP activist said: “We read the papers, watch the TV debates and hear how everything is apparently changing.
“But that’s not what we’re seeing in Aberdeen.”
Mr Flynn, who rose to fame as the SNP’s group leader at Westminster and somebody who has gained praise for his performances in the televised pre-election debates, has less than a 4,000 majority in his Aberdeen South constituency – the Tories were second last time round.
In which light, this is considered to be a tight and even marginal battle.
However, his election agent, Doug Daniel, insisted there were ample reasons to feel confident, even if he – along with everyone else – stressed that not a single vote is being taken for granted.
There’s no enthusiasm for Starmer says SNP
Mr Daniel told me: “There are a lot of factors in the mix – austerity, independence, people’s bills going up – but we’re also meeting Labour people who are really unimpressed with Starmer and they’ve told us they used to vote Labour, but are not voting for him.
“We’re getting quite a good response and although we see the polling nationally points to a Labour upturn, it doesn’t feel like that’s happening in the north-east.
“I think some SNP supporters believe independence isn’t on the agenda at the moment and the priority is to get the Tories out. But that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Starmer.”
The canvassing techniques are very sophisticated these days. Parties have access to the public’s names and addresses and former political preferences.
In some cases, there’s little point trying to be persuasive – Mr Daniel said: “You get the occasional person who is a bit Grr and very much not SNP” – but they’re in the minority.
Indeed, on my different sessions with different parties, what struck me was the tolerance of the public and how many were keen to discuss their opinions with activists and candidates alike of all political persuasions.
In Cove Bay, one resident on meeting Mr Flynn told him how impressed she had been with his arguments on Question Time.
All smiles and optimism from the Tories in Mannofield
One might suppose it would be a thankless task striving to preach the Conservative gospel in the current climate – when the pollsters are predicting a historic defeat – but John Wheeler, the Tory candidate in Aberdeen South, was all smiles when we met on a glorious Friday afternoon in Deeside Drive.
I had just watched him speaking with a female constituent and both seemed to be singing from the same hymn sheet. The polls couldn’t possibly be wrong, could they?
Oil and gas remains big issue for voters, say Tories
Mr Wheeler wasn’t going that far, but told me: “We’ve been largely insulated here in the north-east, particularly with the whole oil and gas issue, because we have a large proportion of people who work in the sector and are concerned about the other parties.
“That’s one of the key things coming up on the doors, consistently, every day.
“Our vote share is holding up, but in terms of the polls, there has been one which had me winning the seat, one which had Labour winning it, and several polls having the SNP retaining it.
“All of these have been taken from national data and what they don’t factor in is some of the hyper-local issues which matter to people in the city.
“So it could be an incredibly close result where pretty much anything could happen.
“In broader terms, a lot of people are pretty hacked off with politics and politicians and really want to vent about that. They don’t want people defending what has been going on over the last few years and that is right across the political spectrum.
“I think they want us to recognise that politics should be far better than it has been. And politicians should be far better than some of them have been in recent years.”
Support for dedicated activists across the board
The candidates may have starkly contrasting views on many policies, but they all appreciate the behind-the-scenes assistance of the canvassers and leaflet distributors.
Mrs Thomson described them as “invaluable”, Mr Wheeler said he “wouldn’t have a campaign without them” and Mr Flynn added: “They are the lifeblood of political parties – putting in the hard yards, night after night, for a cause that they believe.
“They have chosen to be the change and I couldn’t be more grateful to them. And we do have a good laugh along the way and that energy keeps everybody’s spirits up after weeks of walking and thousands of doors.”
What will happen in Aberdeen?
Everybody was cautious about making any forecasts. The postal votes could be crucial in both cases and many have already returned their ballot papers with their Xs marked.
So what’s the prognostication? If only it was that straightforward. But as somebody once said about Hollywood and why films hit or miss: “Nobody knows anything.”
Yet, at least it is democracy in action.
On the ground, spatulas very much to the fore!