Before the pandemic, and with business booming, fish and chip shop owner Rikki Pirie hatched a plan to expand his two Sea Salt and Sole outlets to three.
The plan stuck through multiple Covid-19 lockdowns and the new shop, in Cove, will open in the next few weeks, joining the other venues in Dyce and Bridge of Don.
What has changed dramatically, however, is the industry, and spiraling costs for chip shops are giving Rikki second thoughts about his decision.
“Before, it was a no-brainer,” he says. “Now? Things are much more difficult.”
Inflation on everything from energy to cooking oil is stretching fish and chip shops to breaking point, and chip shops are responding by raising prices.
Now, some believe that the £10 fish supper is just around the corner.
Soaring bills
According to the National Federation of Fish Friers (NFFF), batter costs have jumped by 40% in the past year and packaging is up by as much as 70%.
The price of fish has also skyrocketed, with cod up by 70% and haddock by 81% in a matter of months.
The NFFF is telling its members that one in three chips shops in the UK could close because of the extra financial strain.
Meanwhile, rising gas prices are having an outsized impact on chip shops because of their energy high consumption.
At Sea Salt and Soul, Rikki was handed a £3,000 gas bill for December – almost four times the normal charge – after he was shifted to an emergency tariff because his original energy supplier went bust.
“Everything just seems to be going mad at the moment,” says the business owner, who put up prices by about 10% on average to cover costs.
The award-winning shop owner is confident that business will boom in the longer term, but adds: “We’re just trying to get by and hope that thigs will start to even out.”
Crisis time
Fochabers Fish Bar owner Stuart Whyte has also raised prices and will add a further 50p to his £7.80 fish suppers on 1 April when VAT bounces back to 20% following a Covid-19 grace period for hospitality.
The situation, says Stuart, who has been in the business for 25 years, is the worst since the haddock shortages of the early nineties.
“You just try to watch your costs as best you can,” he adds.
“But I’m seeing customers going away from fish and taking other items – puddings, sausages or whatever – because they are cheaper.”
Part of the problem is that customers view fish and chips, bought from a takeaway fish bar, as a cheap dining option.
Shop owners are under pressure to keep prices low despite using freshly-caught fish that costs as much as premium meats favoured in fine dining.
“The price of fresh haddock in the supermarket is the same as for fillet steak,” Stuart points out.
“You could never have fillet steak and chips for £7.80.”
The £10 fish supper?
The squeeze has already seen some fish and chip shops fall by the wayside.
Last week, Arbroath chip shop The Round O, which has been in the same family since 1925, announced on Facebook it was closing down due to “current times and circumstances”.
For those looking to survive, higher prices are the only option.
“People think fish and chips should be a cheap meal, but it’s not going to be for much longer,” says Rikki.
“If this continues, we’re looking at £10 for a portion of fish and chips.”
Adapt to survive
Liam Brown, the company director of Mike’s Famous Fish and Chips on Aberdeen’s Mugiemoss Road, agrees that fish and chips is on course to break the £10 barrier.
But Liam is also critical of old-fashioned thinking that he believes is holding some businesses back.
“We need to adapt,” Liam says of the industry.
“People have told me that one in three chip shops in the UK will close and I believe that could well be the case. But shops have to get their working practices correct. They will have to start doing things differently.”
Eager to lead the way, Liam is opening up a second Mike’s Famous Fish and Chips, just off the A96 in Blackburn.
The expansion follows a refurbishment of the Mugiemoss Road branch 18 months ago.
The new shop, set to open this summer, will serve gluten-free batter, vegan sausages and – once Liam perfects the recipe – vegan fish and chips.
“If someone in the family is vegan or gluten-free, then they are dictating where the family eat,” Liam says.
“You have to have an option available for everybody.”
But modernising comes with a price tag.
Instead of one fryer, the new Blackburn shop will have two; one for traditional beef dripping oil and one containing vegetable oil for the gluten-free and vegan produce.
At the same time, utility bills and other costs for Mike’s Famous Fish and Chips have gone “silly”, Liam says.
Cheap no longer
Like others in the industry, he believes that customers will have to get used to higher prices at their local fish bar.
“It’s not a cheap option anymore,” he says.
“But it you’re willing to pay £18 for a large pizza at a chain pizzeria, which is just the cheapest of rubbish in my opinion, then you should be willing to pay for quality fish and chips.”