A north-east academic has predicted that the United Kingdom Independence Party could “sneak in” and win a European Parliament seat in Scotland.
Aberdeen University professor of politics Michael Keating said Ukip could take advantage of “fragmented” support for the Liberal Democrats and Green Party to take one of the six seats on May 22.
But he added that the result would not necessarily be due to growing support for Nigel Farage’s party in Scotland, and would reflect the fact there were so many political parties fighting for seats.
Prof Keating, director of the Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change, said he did not think Ukip’s “withdraw from Europe” message would resonate with many voters as people here have a “greater understanding” of how laws are made, due to devolution.
Last summer Otto Inglis, Ukip’s candidate in the Aberdeen Donside Holyrood by-election, claimed his party was on track to win a European Parliament seat in Scotland. Ukip finished fifth in the contest, polling 1,128 votes – nearly three times the number secured by Green Party candidate Rhoda Reekie.
Asked if he thought Ukip could win the seat currently held by Lib Dem MEP George Lyon, Prof Keating said: “There is an outside chance it could get it because we do not know who voters are going to plump for. If you want to keep Ukip out who do you vote for – the Lib Dems or the Greens? But that vote could be very fragmented.
“There are always circumstances Ukip could sneak in with a fairly large percentage of the vote.
“It would not reflect a surge for Ukip support in Scotland; it would just reflect the fact there are so many parties in contention.”
Prof Keating said people in Scotland found the idea of laws being made in different parliaments less “puzzling” than people south of the border.
“In Scotland we are used to living in a union and laws being made in multiple places, he added.
“Even before devolution there were Scottish laws and laws at a UK level so I think there is a greater understanding of federalism and what division of power is and less worry about it.”