Economic activity in Scotland has returned to pre-recession levels – and 2013 could now be a record year for growth.
The latest quarterly Bank of Scotland Business Monitor, published this morning, shows the best results for six years.
Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said the figures were down to action taken by the SNP Government at Holyrood – claiming they strengthened the case for independence.
There was a “substantial improvement” in turnover, according to the research, with 45% of firms surveyed reporting it had risen over the period of June to August this year while just 22% experienced a decline.
Subtracting the firms who had a fall in turnover from those who had a rise, this gives a net balance of +23% – up from -8% in the previous three months and the best results for six years, returning the total for this to the pre-recession levels of 2007.
For firms in the production sector, the net balance for turnover for the three months to the end of August was +24%, against -5% in the previous quarter. The service sector also saw a similar improvement, with the net balance for turnover going from -10% to +22% in June to August.
Of the firms surveyed, 45% said their total volume of business was up in June to August, with 21% reporting a drop. Four out of 10 businesses surveyed said they saw an increase in the volume of new business and a quarter of companies experienced a rise in volume of repeat business.
But more firms suffered a fall in export activity than experienced a rise in overseas sales. Export activity rose for 22% of companies surveyed, but decreased for 23% giving a net balance of -1%.
This, however, was the only negative trend in this latest survey. A total of 32% of firms surveyed said they expected their volume of business to rise in the next six months, compared to 13% who expect it to fall.
While just over half (53%) of firms expect turnover to remain static in the next six months, a third expect their turnover to rise, while 14% are anticipating a fall.
Donald MacRae, the bank’s chief economist, said if the surge continued, “the Scottish economy should record a year of growth for 2013”.
Mr Swinney said: “These positive results follow recent labour market and GDP figures which show Scotland is outperforming the UK in terms of employment and growth.
“The Scottish Government is taking action where we can, and we are seeing results, but there is much more that we could be doing with the economic and fiscal powers of independence.”
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