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Jillian Evans: ‘No doubt there will be a post-Christmas Covid spike’

Jillian Evans, NHS Grampian's head of health intelligence.
Jillian Evans, NHS Grampian's head of health intelligence.

NHS Grampian health expert Jillian Evans has stressed there is “no doubt” there will be a post-Christmas spike in Covid cases – even with the added restrictions.

A swathe of new Scottish Government restrictions is due to come into force on Boxing Day to try and slow the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant.

The move will limit crowds at sporting events to just 500, ban large public Hogmanay events and restrict hospitality venues to table service for three weeks among other steps.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has encouraged people to stay at home as much as possible during the festive period.

However, Ms Evans, who is NHS Grampian’s head of health intelligence, has warned it is still inevitable there will be a steep rise in Covid cases after Christmas.

‘Covid infection rate will still be rising’

Nicola Sturgeon told the Scottish Parliament on Tuesday that the average number of daily Covid cases has jumped from 3,500 to 5,500 within the last week – adding those in the 20 to 24-year-old age group had increased by 161%.

The first minister said it is estimated the R number, which measures the growth rate of coronavirus, is “well over” three.

Ms Evans told the BBC the impact of staff absences was already having an effect on health boards across Scotland.

And the health official added more pressure was inevitable as Covid cases would continue to rise after Christmas – even with the added restrictions.

She said: “There will be a post-Christmas spike, there is no doubt about it.

“The numbers are continuing to increase day-by-day, a lot of those people will already be planning their time in hospital because they are infected now.

“There will be an increase post-Christmas, both in infection rates, we expect them still to be rising then, but also starting to see the effect into hospitalisations.

“We hope though, and there are positive signals from elsewhere, that people won’t spend as long in hospital and that will be helpful.”