A new study suggests rows over the EU, currency and welfare have had little or no impact on voters – and that the independence referendum result hinges on whether people would be £500 a year better off.
The ScotCen Social Research’s annual Scottish Social Attitudes survey showed that what mattered most to people was the likely economic consequences of breaking away from the UK.
Polling expert Professor John Curtis claimed the issues debated by campaigners had peripheral interest to voters, and the referendum campaign was at risk of “short-changing” the people of Scotland.
He said the arguments trotted out appeared to have done little to help them be clear and confident about the decision they have to make on September 18.
The results are based on face-to-face research involving 1,497 adults carried out between June-October last year – before the Scottish Government’s white paper on independence was published.
The survey showed that 52% of respondents said they would support independence if they thought they would be £500 a year better off.
Conversely, only 15% would back change, and 72% would be opposed, if they thought they would be £500 a year worse off.
A total of 71% of those who think Scotland’s economy would be better under independence said they would, or think they would be most likely to, vote “yes”.
In contrast, 86% of those who think that the economy would be worse would be inclined to vote “no”.
The survey revealed that campaigners on both sides of the debate have not succeeded in convincing a majority of the merits of their economic case.
While only 9% agree with the “yes” campaign that they personally would be better off under independence, a minority of 29% accept the “no” argument that they would be worse off.
Most feel it would not make any difference (52%), or that they don’t know (10%).
While 30% think Scotland’s economy would be better under independence, 34%, believe it would be worse.
Prof Curtis, research consultant at ScotCen Social Research, said: “The referendum campaign is at risk of short-changing the people of Scotland. Voters want to hear about the economic and financial consequences of the choice that they make, and it is on the outcome of that debate that the result of the referendum is likely to turn.”
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