Farmers have said they expect to expand their beef herds and sheep flocks in the new Cap, despite claims to the contrary by their leaders who have warned that potentially hundreds could quit with cow and ewe numbers plummeting.
The surprise contradiction emerged in the results of the Bank of Scotland’s annual Scottish Agricultural Survey completed by 359 farmers, a 16% response, in recent weeks.
Among the respondents 32% said they would increase their beef operations. Just 12% indicated they would cut cow numbers and only 5% plan to quit. For sheep, 29% anticipated growth, with 11% reducing and 8% likely to exit.
Bank chief economist Professor Donald MacRae said the answers posed “a bit of a conundrum” as 51% of respondents said they would be worse off under the new Cap from 2015. Just 7% expect no change in their subsidies, but only 4% anticipate more. A significant 38% had no idea on future aid levels.
Farmer optimism has fallen but only by 3% since 2013. A quarter deemed themselves optimistic or very optimistic, the third highest level since 1996.
There was a 9% rise to 68% in the numbers who expect their business to be profitable in their current financial year.
The Scottish Government plans two payment regions in the new Cap, but only 19% agreed. Just over a third (37%), including Prof MacRae, favour three, while 38% want four or more.
On the switch to the area-based payment regime from historic, half said they wanted a slow changeover. There was near unanimity on the need for only active farming to be rewarded, with 89% opposed to subsidies going to those who have stopped farming crops or livestock.
The Scottish Government’s rating was deemed by 81% to be satisfactory or better, but on Cap reforms only 48% said it had done well. Its handling of landlord tenants relations was rated poor or very poor by 57%.
The survey confirmed not all renewable energy projects live up to expectations. It showed 14% had already invested in wind power and solar, 9% in wood fuel heating, 2% in hydro and 1% in anaerobic digestion. Wind power had fallen below expectations for 37% and well below for a further 14%. By contrast, solar was below target for 21% of projects, with 54% in line with expectations and 25% doing better than expected.