This will be the last Budget at which major changes can be announced before the Scottish Referendum, the European Elections and, for most practical purposes, the General Election.
Chancellor George Osborne has already promised to deliver a Budget that deals in hard truths and that: “supports a Britain that invests and that exports. A Budget that lays the foundations for our long term economic security.”
It’s expected to be politics; red in tooth and claw.
He is bound to dwell on better-than-expected economic growth and, possibly, the drop in North Sea tax revenues and its impact on Scotland’s fiscal deficit before he announces any tax measures.
But what tax devices could he use to unsettle his political rivals north and south of the border when he also wants to cut another £25billion off UK public expenditure?
He could show support for the North Sea sector by changing his plan to cap the amount that companies can deduct for “bareboat” chartering of rigs. The measure is thought likely to take an extra £1billion from the oil and gas industry.
If not abandoned then it may at least be subjected to “further consultation” for the duration of the current Parliament.
Support for manufacturing and exports is most likely to come in the form or export credit guarantees, although he may undo the reductions in tax relief for investment in new equipment made in recent Budgets.
More likely is action to review business rates in England and Wales.
Leading manufactures have written to the chancellor complaining that investment in new equipment drives up the rateable value of their properties and risks wiping out any efficiency gains made.
Retailers would be equally sympathetic to changes to a system that is blamed for driving shop closures.
Callum Wilson is a tax partner in Johnston Carmichael’s Aberdeen Office