It would be a brave reporter who would stake their reputation on predicting the outcome of Aberdeen City Council election.
And so I won’t.
As a certified wuss, I am dodging the reputation-busting predictions ahead of tomorrow’s vote.
But here is a guide to where there might well be drama at Friday’s count – with council insiders suggesting some big hitters could be in jeopardy…
After 2017, the 2022 Aberdeen City Council has tough act to follow
I can’t promise the rollercoaster ride that was May 2017.
The high profile Labour casualties, the sharp rise in the Conservative vote and the huge share of seats the SNP took.
In the weeks that followed, more drama unfolded as Kezia Dugdale exiled her Aberdeen Labour councillors.
The press gallery was shocked as Jennifer Stewart left the Liberal Democrats to join the independents in administration at the first meeting of the new council.
And the SNP fumed as their 19 councillors – four shy of an outright majority – were kept out of power by a coalition led by the Conservatives and Labour.
Here’s a few wards to keep an eye out for come Friday’s vote counting at P&J Live, if you’re in the market for a little political drama.
Ward 1: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone
Four councillors to be elected
First out the blocks and a result that could well send candidates around the city into a fluster.
Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone could set the tone for just how good a Friday it turns out to be for the main parties.
Both SNP candidates – Gill Al-Samarai and Neil MacGregor – are standing for re-election.
But the Conservatives are targeting a gain here, putting up two candidates after taking 30% of the first preference votes in 2017.
The SNP duo took more than that combined last time out, but the Tories are campaigning hard.
Avril MacKenzie and Braiden Smith are helpfully back-to-back on the ballot paper too – though Al-Samarai is right at the very top of the list.
List placement can be make-or-break in notoriously low turnout local elections, say concerned party sources.
In putting up only one candidate – Barney Crockett – Aberdeen Labour will be hoping to consolidate their vote and hold on to their seat.
But if the Conservatives win a second seat, or come close, they’ll think they’re on to a winner in other crunch wards.
Ward 2: Bridge of Don
Four councillors to be elected
In Bridge of Don, it’s all about the Reynolds effect. And it could prove another good gauge for how the day unfolds.
Once a happy hunting ground for the Liberal Democrats, the retiring former lord provost John Reynolds took a good chunk of their vote with him when he became an independent.
Data here is slightly more up to date because of a council by-election for two seats in 2019.
The Conservative candidate Sarah Cross won the largest vote share, tightly followed by Jessica Mennie of the SNP.
Whether Liberal Democrat Mevrick Fernandes can recapture a Bridge of Don seat will depend on how many of Reynolds’ 1,000-odd voters return.
And 2019 showed not all of them did. But their 18% might be enough to seal a seat here.
Otherwise, it could be another Conservative gain – though second candidate Matthew Watt is right at the end of the alphabet.
It might be worth saying this ward has a Labour past until the 2017 vote, when it rejected formidable ex-finance convener Willie Young.
Ward 3: Kingswells, Sheddocksley and Summerhill
Three councillors to be elected
This feels the best chance of Labour adding to their numbers.
Aberdeen colleagues have championed Kate Blake as their one to watch, one of the new wave of Scottish Labour names among their 15 candidates.
And the Conservative incumbent John Wheeler only got 100 more first preferences than Labour in 2017.
This might not be comfortable for the Tories.
Ward 5: Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill
Three councillors to be elected
This is thought to be the SNP’s best chance at the elusive goal of winning two seats in a three-councillor ward.
This will depend on how many voters stick with Labour during another changing of the guard, as Lesley Dunbar steps aside for Deena Tissera.
Labour is compounding its vote with only one candidate here, a combined 26% in 2017.
So Freddie John’s Conservative support – nearly 20% five years ago – could be outvoted too.
In 2017, the SNP’s Neil Copland won with 25% of the first preference votes.
Second candidate Lauren Wards – right at the bottom of the ballot – won 16.1%, trailing Dunbar by around 90 votes.
And now Copland’s running alongside Hazel Cameron, who will be first on the list.
Time to test the old theory on how much weight should be given to alphabetical ordering, highlighted here by NPR.
Ward 7: Midstocket and Rosemount
Three councillors to be elected
Another shout for an SNP gain here, as Aberdeen Labour leader Jenny Laing steps down.
Again a three-member ward, and it’s thought it will be more difficult to take a second seat here due to the popularity of SNP incumbent Bill Cormie.
Oh to be popular!
Ward 8: George Street and Harbour
Four councillors to be elected
Drama here will depend on the fortunes of the Greens.
Have they done enough to convince 300ish new people to vote in a low-turnout area?
Why the need for 300?
The SNP should have their two seats locked down with incumbents Dell Henrickson and Michael Hutchison.
Labour’s Sandra Macdonald could increase her vote too given the lack of a second red-rosetted candidate here.
Her party took 23% of first preference votes between the two when she first stood in 2017. It would not take much for her to overtake the Tories here.
But are 2017’s Conservative voters going to migrate to the Greens or vote for new Tory youngster Shane Painter?
The Greens need to mobilise a couple hundred new voters to be in with a chance.
But they’ve put up vice-convener Guy Ingerson there, so likely view it as their best shot at a first Aberdeen City Council seat.
Ward 9: Lower Deeside
Three councillors to be elected
Top drama rating here, potentially.
A three-member, leafy ward where the Conservatives have only put one candidate. Until now.
In 2017, Philip Bell – who is stepping down – took very nearly 40% of first preference votes all on his own.
Gillian Tebberen and Duncan Massey’s candidacy would have been a jolt for independent Marie Boulton. Will her long service be enough to see her through?
Her 2017 result benefitted in transfers from Tory voters who now have a second candidate to vote for.
Labour’s M. Tauqeer Malik is another locally popular figure, standing again after 10 years in the job.
There is real jeopardy in Lower Deeside for one established name if the Tories manage to equally share their vote share.
And it looks like it would come at the expense of one of their current administration allies.
The SNP gained support here in 2019 during the general election, but will that stick?
Ward 10: Hazlehead, Queens Cross and Countesswells
Four councillors to be elected
This is another ward where the Tories are gunning for a gain – this time to the detriment of the SNP.
Independent depute provost Jennifer Stewart – described as a “shoo-in” by one opponent – and her former Liberal Democrat colleague Martin Greig are long-established and likely safe.
Conservative Claire Imrie is stepping back and has been replaced by two new candidates, Lars Frevert and Ken McLeod.
If I had to pick one SNP seat that looks shoogly, it’s John Cooke’s Hazlehead, Queens Cross and Countesswells perch.
The result looks heavily turnout-dependent, given Cooke’s round five under quota win by 50 votes over the second Tory candidate last time.
You can find a full list of candidates standing in the Aberdeen City Council elections here.
