Aberdeenshire residents are “going to see change” after £67 million is slashed from public spending, the council leader has admitted.
Conservative Mark Findlater warned some rural bus services could be axed, while schools could be pushed to find ways of saving hundreds of thousands of pounds collectively.
Even then, financial chiefs stress the way forward they have plotted “comes with a high level of risk”.
Bosses hope to save around 25% of their eye-watering target by waiting out inflation through the year.
If prices don’t drop, there could be a need to cut even more before next March’s budget as “other pressures are identified or risks crystalise”.
Findlater: ‘We want a steady hand on the tiller’
Unlike in other council areas, the Conservative-led coalition with the Liberal Democrats has already published its Aberdeenshire budget plans.
Mr Findlater pledged “my door is open to all” after allowing the public and his political opponents a full eight days to digest the proposals.
In Aberdeen, a row broke out as opponents had just 10 minutes to scrutinise SNP and Liberal Democrat plans in comparison.
“This is the toughest budget, I think, that we’ve had and so our proposals are responsible, measured and considered,” Troup representative Mr Findlater said.
It’s a triplet of adjectives repeated at least four times during a 25-minute meeting.
“We want a steady hand on the tiller.”
With the administration showing us their working, here is our guide to how they intend to claw £66.8m back over the year.
Aberdeenshire budget: £67m mountain reduced to £32m hill for councillors to climb
Among the lowest funded councils in Scotland, Aberdeenshire’s accountants started planning this year’s budget £20.1m in the red.
Inflation, the way reserves were used and one-off savings being used to balance the books last March were the cause.
And the rising cost of nearly everything, as well as changes in demand levels across the region, were behind another £45.9m of budgetary pressure.
But £16.1m of the eye-watering £66.8m tab was covered with extra money from the Scottish Government.
An additional £5.5m expected to be raised through council tax and another £2.4m from upped fees and charges also spared departmental budgets.
The accountants are also using new flexible book-keeping options, updated regulations around debt, and other funds and reserves to lessen the blow.
After all of that, the black hole threatening Aberdeenshire public services is a still daunting £31.7m.
From £32m to £16m: ‘High risk’ hopes of lessening inflation
The next step in reducing that is where the crossing of the fingers comes in.
Council departments have all revised their estimates on how much it will cost to provide their services until next March.
In doing so, directors have identified “solutions to mitigate pressures and acknowledged inflationary indices used to forecast future price increases may reduce”.
But there is a caution from business services director Ritchie Johnson that accepting risk – by hoping inflation will fall – could “result in budget pressures arising during the year” if it doesn’t come off.
To cover the council, extra cash is to be stashed away to pay for energy, overspending on health and social care, instances of extreme weather, and increased wage bills due to national negotiations.
An in-depth risk assessment has been undertaken by officials and will be monitored throughout the year.
“Aberdeenshire Council has a history of being good and steady so far as getting things right in the budget is concerned,” Mr Findlater added.
“But officers are very risk aware, and so are we.”
The flexible approach to risk has been valued at £16.1m within the budget.
Director: Balancing the Aberdeenshire Council budget this way risks cuts in the coming months
But Mr Johnson warned: “It is important to stress that the direction taken by the council comes with a high level of risk.
“It is the responsibility of every budget holder to carefully monitor their spending decisions, adjusting programmes and activity as we move through the year, to ensure they don’t exceed their budget.
“The role of councillors is equally important as they will be required to monitor and scrutinise spend.
“There is also the possibility that there will be a need for more restraint throughout the year as other pressures are identified or risks crystalise.
“That may impact on future service delivery and will be carefully monitored.”
Worth of voluntary severance to Aberdeenshire Council contested
The above shuffling of cash and hopeful staving off of inflation reduces the final savings target to £15.629m.
Voluntary severance is expected to account for £2m of this – though opposition SNP group leader Gwyneth Petrie thinks that’s overly ambitious.
“For the last few years, we have said voluntary severance has its place but not to the level we have been estimating in Aberdeenshire,” she said.
“You see that play out in the council not meeting any of its targets for the last two or three years.
“We are a council where workforce is a real issue. We struggle to recruit, with more work piled on the staff we do have, so there has to be a real balancing act.”
The council is expected to embark on a major reorganisation in the coming years.
Once the 2023-24 budget is agreed, talks will begin on how the local authority might look in the future.
Empty posts could – or might not – help meet savings target
Before then, only essential vacancies will be filled as council chiefs struggle to make “significant savings”.
Around £1m could held back by not automatically filling posts – though again that banks on risk.
Staff could stay with the council, not creating enough vacancies to meet the target.
Or, as director Mr Johnson warned, “the level of vacancies could become so great that services can no longer be delivered to the same scope and standard, or indeed at all”.
Another £2m could be saved by the council renegotiating its contacts with suppliers.
That takes the remainder left to save to £10.6m – and that’s where the cuts to school budgets, bus services and more will be considered on Thursday.
Have a look at our breakdown of the last money-saving steps – the final millions – being proposed by Aberdeenshire Council.
Conversation