“Would they really though?” has been the most-asked question since a multi-million-pound ultimatum appeared to quash any hope of Aberdeen’s controversial bus gates being lifted.
Here we are, now nearly a fortnight on from the latest debate about the council’s roads overhaul, brought in using as ‘shoot first, ask questions later’ public consultation.
And yet… the future of the Market Street, Guild Street and Bridge Street bus gates, the Union Terrace right turn ban and Schoolhill shakeup is no more clear.
First things first, here’s where things stand.
The Lib Dems and SNP members running the council showed their hand during the last talks, and seem determined to maintain almost all of it.
In their plans, only the bus gate at the Adelphi would be suspended, allowing entrance to Market Street from the east end of Union Street.
This would allow better access to Market Street businesses as well as the NCP car park in Shiprow, during the multi-million-pound new market construction.
But traffic would be limited to turning left at Trinity Quay – at least for 18 months until the next review of the measures.
Will the government ask Aberdeen for the money back?
During that same meeting, the threat of an £8 million penalty was raised…
Scottish roads chiefs are keeping their cards close to the chest on the matter.
The poker face is yet to slip on the big question over the experimental traffic regulation order (Etro).
Would ministers really punish Aberdeen City Council for scrapping the bus priority scheme by handing them an £8 million bill?
It has not been ruled out.
A Transport Scotland spokeswoman told The P&J: “We note that the council has not made a decision regards the city centre bus gates at this time.
“Funding would be a matter for discussion between the council and Transport Scotland.”
‘Intrinsic links’ between long-awaited Aberdeen roadworks and the bus gates
The basis of the threat is that the roads quango’s Bus Partnership Fund paid for the recent work in South College Street.
Eagle-eyed visitors after the bike-friendly revamp might have noticed nothing about the project improved bus links.
But the grant was secured – much to the chagrin of the councils who missed out – to enable bus priority measures around Guild Street.
More government cash paid for the cameras and roadworks which were brought in last year, before full public consultation.
The idea of a “bus gyratory” goes back decades – but was cemented in the council’s city centre masterplan.
When Aberdeen was awarded the South College Street cash, officials told them: “The award of grant funding towards the completion of South College Street is contingent on undertaking bus priority measures on Guild Street.”
Aberdeen planning chief: Transport Scotland would be ‘completely within their right’ to claim money back if bus gates scrapped
And with that in mind, planning chief David Dunne told councillors: “Clearly there are no bus priority measures on South College Street, so… you know… it shouldn’t have got money from the Bus Partnership Fund.”
He continued: “I have no doubt my equivalents in other local authorities were kicking up a fuss.
“But it was argued that work allowed us to make the changes we made (around Guild Street). The business case was always very clear that it was the facilitation of the bus priority measures.
“They are intrinsically linked so the government would be completely within their rights to request that money back…
“Whether they will would be for a further conversation.”
But… would the Scottish Government really stiff Aberdeen for a bus gate reverse in the face of hundreds and thousands complaining?
Public perception is something that is harder to put a price on.
Is the bus gate threat any more than political scare stories?
“Scare stories” of grants being taken away from Aberdeen is nothing new.
They were bandied about as the SNP and Lib Dems now running the city worked to undo Labour and the Conservatives’ pedestrianisation of Union Street.
It was all dismissed then. But now Liberal Democrat council co-leader Ian Yuill – “left holding the bus gate baby” left by the Labour-led councillors in charge before him – is taking this threat seriously.
Budget constraints were blamed when Transport Scotland paused the £500m Bus Partnership Fund this year – having only issued £26.9m so far.
And that lack of cash in the kitty has raised fears in Aberdeen that civil servants would look to claw back some or all of the £8m South College Street funding if the bus gates were scrapped.
Mr Yuill told The P&J: “The Bus Partnership Fund backed the complete package.
“If the elements making the South College Street improvements eligible were removed, it could be something Transport Scotland could consider.
“Ultimately any decision will be taken by those who awarded us the money.
“The Bus Partnership Fund’s budget for this year is £0 which might make them more inclined.”
How long can this £8m threat hang over Aberdeen?
Clarity over the legal contract the council entered when accepting the £8m will not come before councillors vote on July 3.
Probing the shelf life, Conservative councillor Duncan Massey said: “Surely it can’t be the case that the Bus Partnership Fund has given us this money and then if we ever change the road ever again they will be knocking on our door asking for the money.
“There must be some contractual limit?”
Mr Dunne said it was a “very valid question”.
But it looks like it could be an unanswered one, with elected members poised to vote on the bus gates with the mere threat hanging over them on July 3.
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