Hazlehead’s new academy could be crammed beyond its capacity within two years of opening.
New school roll forecasts predict the £120 million secondary will have 5% too many pupils by 2030.
The Hazlehead catchment is taking in the Kingswells area to lighten the load of already stretched Bucksburn Academy.
And plans for a separate secondary in the Countesswells new town were shelved amid continued uncertainty over the development’s future.
But education convener Martin Greig tells us an extra 100 or so pupils would be “manageable” at Aberdeen’s largest academy.
Why are Aberdeen schools bulging?
Aberdeen City Council has struggled to produce school roll forecasts in recent years due to an influx of people moving here.
Refugees fleeing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have made Aberdeen their home.
And foreign students bringing their children with them as they came to study at the city’s universities heaped even more pressure on schools.
There were even fears about siblings being sent to different schools.
The student pressure has eased since changes were made to immigration law, allowing only certain doctoral students to bring dependents with them from abroad.
But the trouble this posed school forecasters hasn’t been completely overcome.
Only in September, top officials promised the long-awaited roll forecasts would be based on the actual number of pupils in Aberdeen schools at the start of the 2024-25 academic year.
But they aren’t, being published in November using 2023-24 pupil numbers as a basis.
What is the situation at Hazlehead Academy?
The school roll forecast for Hazlehead Academy shows an expectation that the current 1970s school will be at 118% capacity in what’s planned to be its final year in 2027.
In 2028, the capacity increases from 1,127 to the roomy 1,600-berth new build.
On opening day, the council expects to have only 1,464 pupils enrolled at the new Hazlehead Academy.
In its second year there will be room for only 11 more pupils.
And in the final year forecasted, 2030, the roll could increase to 1,686.
Is it cause for concern?
Lib Dem education convener Martin Greig says those extra 86 youngsters would not take the school “significantly over capacity”.
A Hazlehead, Queen’s Cross and Countesswells councillor himself, he adds: “5% is manageable.
“There are schools operating with that level of additionality. There may be solutions that can be found in the meantime.
“It will be the largest secondary school in the city. The estimated population will be very high…
“Obviously we will look at ways of mitigating any challenges that come up with an excess population, as it is an important factor we need to take into account.”
And what about primary schools?
But while Labour Kingswells, Sheddocksley and Summerhill councillor Kate Blake agrees the school being 5% over capacity “may not be of huge concern”, she is still worried.
“If you look at the Countesswells Primary forecast, it’s suggested between 2024 and 2030 that there will be around 130 pupils added to that school,” Mrs Blake tells us.
“We’re talking a class and a half of primary seven.
“Now, that might be right that in six years we won’t see a huge growth in Countesswells, but at the moment there is development going on at both ends of the village.
“So that predication might be a bit conservative.”
Mrs Blake is also concerned about how the council has calculated the number of school-aged children expected to move into new social housing at the former Braeside site.
“This school could cost £120m, and if we might be spending money to adjust it to accommodate more pupils very quickly.”
Consultation on new Hazlehead Academy
Aberdeen City Council is currently holding a consultation on the new Hazlehead Academy campus plans.
Local authority bosses are to use the feedback from this to shape their proposals before they submit a planning application.
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