There has been one constant in the last four General Election campaigns in Moray – Douglas Ross has been the Conservative candidate.
And while the local MP of the last seven years is still a candidate in the new Aberdeenshire North and Moray East this year, it only includes a tiny fraction of the region he previously represented.
Between the outgoing Scottish Conservatives leader, Angus Robertson and Margaret Ewing, the area has a track-record of returning candidates who either have or go on to have a national profile.
This time the main contenders are all first-time national election candidates eager to make a mark at Westminster for the new Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey seat.
And there’s even some suggestion it could become a three-horse race.
So, who is up for next for Moray West this election after Douglas Ross?
Do voters mention Douglas Ross on doorsteps?
The new Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey seat has lost Keith, Cullen, Buckie and Fochabers from the former Moray seat.
Meanwhile, Highland communities including Nairn and those as far south as Aviemore, Newtonmore and Dalwhinnie have been added.
It is still made up of about 70% of the former Moray seat though, which until last month had been represented by Douglas Ross.
Love him or not, the outgoing Scottish Conservatives leader has been one of the most prominent voices in Scottish politics in recent years.
Moray voters have known him longer than the rest of the country. He arguably broke polling models at the last Westminster vote in 2019 when pollsters gave him only a 1% chance of winning, but his local support helped him keep the seat.
A lot has happened in five years though.
So, does he come up on the doorsteps while parties are campaigning?
SNP candidate Graham Leadbitter said: “Yes. I think people are certainly glad to see the back of him.
“I’ve even spoken to a number of Conservative voters, even those who still vote Conservative, who are glad Douglas isn’t standing.”
Labour candidate James Hynam said: “Do you think if he had any chance of winning he would be going along the coast to a different seat?
“People think he’s done a runner. I think the Conservatives are very much aware it’s going to be a bad night for them.”
Conservative candidate Kathleen Robertson said: “To be honest, it’s not something that has come up on the doors.
“It’s a new constituency too. About a third of the seat won’t have had him as their MP before.”
Why SNP believe they can reclaim seat
Before Douglas Ross shocked Angus Robertson in 2017, Moray had been a SNP heartland since the 1980s with the neighbouring parts of the Highlands not voting Conservative since the 1950s.
Elgin councillor Graham Leadbitter, who was first elected to Moray Council in 2007, has been chosen by the party as the best man to win it back for them.
It’s his first time running for national office, a decision he says was motivated by his four years as Moray Council leader.
He believes the impact of Brexit, the cost-of-living crisis and austerity will turn voters in the area back to the SNP.
He said: “It’s a very large constituency, so there are differences in the issues being raised, but there are common themes.
“In Strathspey and Speyside there’s been a huge impact from Brexit with the loss of freedom of movement.
“Some hospitality businesses can’t stay open seven days a week, simply because they can’t get the staff.
“In the Laich of Moray businesses are struggling to export, particularly agricultural businesses and the whisky sector.
“These are all issues that could have been avoided if Scotland had been able to choose its own route.”
How Conservatives hope to defy expectation again to hold on in Moray West
Nationally, the Conservatives have had a disastrous election campaign.
Polls suggest they could lose at least 200 seats when the country goes to the ballot box on July 4.
Moray defied national swings in 2019 though and stayed Conservative at a time the SNP clawed back much of the seats they lost in 2017.
Current Moray Council leader Kathleen Robertson, who was first elected to represent Forres in 2022, is the party’s first election candidate for the area who isn’t Douglas Ross since 2005.
As a former president of the Scottish branch of the British Veterinary Association, she got a taste for politics as a senior vet.
Her frustrations with the education and social care systems encouraged her into local politics and motivated her to run for Westminster.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, she is prioritising a local message.
She said: “I’m a child of the 1970s and 80s and very much remember politicians as people of respect and honesty and they often had life experience.
“I’ve not got a degree in politics, I’ve not worked for a politician. I’m an ordinary person who has had a career, raised a family and looked after their parents.
“People have recognised I’m a new face and have that fresh perspective that they’re looking for.
“If you look at previous Westminster elections, and the council election in 2022, Moray did buck the trend nationally with the strength of the Conservative vote.”
Can Labour join race to win Moray West election?
Recent UK and Scottish elections in Moray have very much been a two-horse race between the SNP and Conservatives.
Every poll so far has suggested the SNP will win the first Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey contest.
Labour have not been serious contenders locally in Westminster elections since 2001 when they polled 25% of the Moray vote.
However, this year the party believe they are in with a realistic shot of being the main party to take the fight to the SNP.
National organisers have even declared Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey as a “battleground” seat for the party – a move which could lead to extra resources to win votes.
Candidate James Hynam is a Forres health worker who is on the parent council at Kinloss Primary School.
He said: “I think we’re the main contender now. The Conservative vote is collapsing and you can tell from their campaign they’ve almost given up here.
“I think people here are fed up with both governments, which have promised much and delivered very little, and local politicians who have spoken big to build profiles rather than helping the area.”
Find out about all candidates in your constituency here.
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