Deputy First Minister John Swinney said he believes the “realities of Brexit” could reverse a trend and reclaim Moray for the party.
The region had the highest proportion for Leave in the 2016 referendum in Scotland – with 49.9% of voters wanting out of the EU.
The following year the Conservatives then took the seat out of the hands of the SNP for the first time since the 1983 poll by toppling Angus Robertson, who was the party’s deputy leader at the time.
Yesterday Mr Swinney visited Aberlour to tour the factory of global shortbread giant Walkers – a firm that has repeatedly warned about the effects of Brexit with about a third of its local workforce being EU nationals and potential barriers to export markets.
Moray could be one of the tightest results in Scotland at the election with the SNP believing the balance is on a “knife-edge”.
And Mr Swinney believes their hopes can be boosted by Brexit backers turning back to the party.
He said: “The people in Moray have to face up to the very hard choice – between a Conservative government that will profoundly damage the economy as a consequence of Brexit or the SNP who will protect the Moray economy from the effects of Brexit.
“I think increasingly people are becoming unnerved at the prospect and implications of Brexit, they’re seeing the real effect of it.
“We need to make sure that people realise that significance of that.”
The SNP’s Moray candidate Laura Mitchell also believes there is a “momentum” of voters turning back to the party locally.
However, the Conservatives claimed a council by-election win in Keith and Cullen just three weeks ago – claiming the result showed their support was “holding strong”.