The UK Government has insisted Douglas Ross is still the man to beat an SNP majority at Holyrood, after polling suggested his party will come third at the next election.
A study carried out by Survation for this paper suggests Scottish Labour could pip the Conservatives to the position of main opposition in May.
The in-depth survey, which had a larger-than-normal survey size, predicted Labour to win 24 seats to the Tories 22, with the SNP winning an overall majority with 67.
Voters also revealed they would be more likely to vote for Scottish Labour than the Scottish Conservatives in May’s election and that Anas Sarwar’s party “represented them” more than Mr Ross’s.
Launching his party’s election campaign in Aberdeen on Thursday morning, Mr Ross said “almost every poll” had Scottish Labour ahead of the Scottish Conservatives in the 2016 Holyrood election.
“I understand it’s interesting for journalists to look at the polls and make predictions,” he said.
“You were all doing this five years ago, that said the Scottish Conservatives would remain in third place, that there was no way they could overtake the Scottish Labour Party.
“We’re now polling higher than we did in that election and I’m ambitious about what we’re going to achieve over the next six weeks.
“And I think the Labour Party are the ones that are looking weak, weak as an opposition party and weak as a party that is unwilling to stand up to the SNP.
“People across Scotland can see the party with the vision for Scotland and the determination to hold the SNP to account and stand up to Nicola Sturgeon and her party is the Scottish Conservatives.”
He added: “I’m going to be making it very clear over the next six weeks that the only party that is strong enough to stop the SNP and their plans for another irresponsible and reckless referendum are the Scottish Conservatives.”
Brexit ‘bounce’ to independence
As part of our survey, data showed support for independence increased to 53% if EU membership was guaranteed.
The country remains “split down the middle” when it comes to whether Scotland should be an independent country, with 51% of those asked saying No.
When asked how Brexit could be impacting the party’s electoral chances, Mr Ross added: “Many remain voters in Scotland from the 2016 referendum are pretty annoyed that the SNP take their remain vote to stay part of the EU as a vote to then have another independence referendum.
“People have seen Brexit and they wanted it done. They wanted us to get through that difficult time for our country and focus now on this pandemic, on the health emergency and rebuilding Scotland after that and we can’t do that with the SNP’s focus on another independence referendum to take us back to the division of the past.”
Westminster faith
Asked about our polling, the prime minister’s press secretary, Allegra Stratton, said: “I won’t comment on one opinion poll, but Douglas Ross is doing brilliant work in Scotland.
“We’ve seen during the pandemic the UK Government has been there for the Scottish people, from rolling out the vaccine to support for business and for workers who have not been able to be at work, the UK Government has stepped in for the Scottish people
“Douglas Ross has been and continues to be an energetic and smart leader.”
Scotland oppose Brexit, say SNP
Responding to our poll, SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “This election comes down to a stark choice – who should decide the country’s future, and lead our recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Should it be a Scottish Government led by Nicola Sturgeon, with the interests of the people of Scotland at heart, or Boris Johnson?
“People in Scotland overwhelmingly opposed leaving the EU and it’s abundantly clear that views are changing on independence as voters look to escape this Brexit nightmare, which has destroyed jobs, hammered our economy and devastated our fishing industry.
“Scotland has been dragged out of the EU against our will by a Tory government that we didn’t vote for – and which is undemocratically trying to block the people of Scotland having their say on that.
“People here must have the choice of a better future as an equal, independent, European nation. Scotland’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic must be in Scotland’s hands, not Boris Johnson’s.”