Alex Salmond’s hopes of returning to frontline politics and securing a “supermajority” for independence at May’s Holyrood election are doomed, shock new Alba Party polling has suggested.
The Survation poll, carried out exclusively for DC Thomson, found the former first minister’s pro-independence party, Alba Party, to be seriously lagging behind the other major parties – with only 3% of Scots saying they would offer support at the ballot box.
The poll also returned some eyebrow-raising results for Mr Salmond himself, with 71% of Scots saying they viewed the former SNP boss unfavourably – by far the worst result for any mainstream political leader in the UK.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice, speaking on the back of the survey, told us “it looks as though it’s all over for Salmond”.
More than half of Scots polled also held the view that Mr Salmond was “hindering the cause for Scottish independence”, compared with only 17% who said his contribution was helping the independence movement.
More than 1,000 Scottish residents were surveyed for the poll over March 29 and March 30.
The results put the SNP ahead in both constituency and list votes, on 49% and 37%, respectively, while the Tories sit on 21% and 18%, Labour 20% and 19%, the Liberal Democrats on 9% and 8%, the Greens on 11% in the list and the Alba Party trailing on 3%.
Polling experts have said the figures translate to a narrow majority for the SNP on 66 MSPs, with Labour in second on 24, Tories on 21, Greens on 11 and Lib Dems on 7.
In terms of individual favourability, Nicola Sturgeon leads the pack with 50% of Scots having a favourable view of the first minister.
In contrast, only 17% of people have a favourable view of Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross and 22% have a positive view of Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.
The standout result, however, is for Mr Salmond, who only racks up 10% favourability – with 71% having a negative view of the former SNP leader.
The closest figure to Mr Salmond in terms of unpopularity is Boris Johnson, who is viewed unfavourably by 56% of Scots.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said: “The headline is that it looks as though it’s all over for Salmond, though he might just get a seat in the north-east himself.
“But this is not what he needs if he is going to get his campaign to take off.
“If other polls come out over the weekend with similar numbers then he ain’t going to get broadcast coverage because the broadcasters will be able to say ‘you’re not a significant player in this election’.”
Prof Curtice said Mr Salmond is failing to cut through among younger SNP voters.
“Among SNP 2019 voters, Sturgeon has 87% favourability, Salmond 12%. He’s not convincing them, he’s not getting his argument across to that key constituency,” he said.
Mr Salmond aside, Prof Curtice said the poll is also “bad news for the Union”.
He said: “Point one to note is that the immediate fallout from the Hamilton inquiry, the parliamentary inquiry and Salmond’s intervention is basically zero, because support for independence is at 50/50, which is what it’s been at for a while.
“Support for the SNP is also down by a statistically insignificant amount. On these numbers the SNP would just get a majority.
“So the attempts to inflict serious damage on the SNP and the independence movement through trying to nail Sturgeon over the parliamentary inquiry has failed.”
Strong polling but there is no complacency from @theSNP. For experienced leadership to get us through Covid, bold policies to drive recovery and Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands, #BothVotesSNP is essential. https://t.co/jzo2pfAH4A
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) April 1, 2021
Scotland’s unionist parties remained resolute, however, a Scottish Tory spokesman saying: “Only the Scottish Conservatives have the strength to stop an SNP majority, stop their push for another independence referendum and get all of the focus back on rebuilding Scotland and recovering from this pandemic.”
‘Still everything to play for’
On Mr Salmond’s polling, a Tory source added: “Scotland is rightly rejecting Alex Salmond’s toxic new nationalist party. He was a divisive figure as SNP leader and he has only become more universally despised in the years since he left office.”
A Scottish Labour source added: “With weeks to go there is still everything to play for in this race – and a parliament focused on a national recovery at risk.
“But it’s comforting to see early signs that Scottish voters are ready to end the circus we’ve had to live through, because Scotland deserves better.”
SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said the polls demonstrated Ms Sturgeon is “the only credible candidate for first minister”.
He said: “By giving both votes to the SNP we can re-elect Nicola Sturgeon as first minister and put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands.”