Who is up and who is down – five things we know so far
- It is a record turnout.
Lines have been reported at polling stations in many states, particularly those that have not allowed early voting.
This could spell bad news for Donald Trump. Are minority voters turning out in places like Florida, North Carolina and Georgia to block his bid for the White House? The Clinton campaign will, of course, hope so. Certainly, there seems to an ‘anyone but Trump’ vote hitting generally well-educated areas, like New York and New Hampshire. Trump, for instance, got booed while en route to vote for himself in Manhattan. But is it taking place elsewhere?
Yet, the Republican’s campaign has focused on getting those who don’t normally vote to turn-up for the first time. Could the high-turnout in fact be his campaign pulling off an outstanding success? Trump has promised to do a “Brexit times ten” – another campaign that succeeded because it got the apolitical to the ballot box. We will know in a few hours if he has succeeded.
- Clinton is confident.
The former First Lady clearly thinks she has key states like Florida in the bag. She did not finish her campaign there, opting instead to head to Michigan.
Without the Sunshine State, Trump’s task of reaching the White House is almost impossible.
There is a sense, however, that this election could yield some surprises.
Trump has suggested he will win “a lot” of states and is, unsurprisingly, buoyant.
- The weather holds.
That’s right, the Americans are not suffering from our Arctic bite. Weather in key battlegrounds like Florida (unsurprisingly), but also New Hampshire and North Carolina is holding up. Has that contributed to the increased turnout? Quite possibly. Certainly, the doorknockers and campaigners will have had a nice day out.
- The Senate race could be as interesting as the Presidential contest.
A number of senators could be facing a difficult night, particularly those on the Republican benches. Two former candidates for the White House – John McCain and Marco Rubio – are facing fights in Arizona and Florida respectively.
For the Democrats, Sin City could throw a spanner in the works. Catherine Cortez Masto is facing a strong challenge from the Republicans in Las Vegas. With the Republicans currently enjoying a slim majority in the upper house, this race could prove crucial.
The final days of the campaign have left everything to play for.
- The money is following Clinton.
Bookies know best right? Clinton is currently enjoying an 80% likelihood of winning, according to Bet Fair. The odds give Trump little chance of winning. But it is worth remembering that at around this time on the day of the EU referendum, the money was similarly following a Remain vote. Could we be in for a similar upset tonight?
