Whatever it becomes, the coronavirus crisis has already delivered a sobering lesson in just how fragile our world can be and just how quickly the ground can move beneath our feet.
It is already being compared to pivotal, generational-shaping events in national and international history, the world wars or Spanish flu, but, more important than comparisons, is the need to learn from these seismic events in our past.
We might never know how many of us will contract coronavirus. Its spread is already deemed a pandemic, as was the Spanish flu of 1918, but there are significant differences. Spanish flu impacted one third of the planet’s population. There were an estimated 50 million deaths, the numbers who suffered were about 500m.
In an effort to halt the spread of coronavirus, people with symptoms are now advised to consult NHS websites and not visit their GP, so we might never know the true number of cases.
In Aberdeen, we also had a more recent comparison – though not on this scale – with the 1964 outbreak of typhoid.
The city was seriously impacted when more than 500 people of all ages had to be quarantined in hospital.
The outbreak led to three deaths plus an additional eight linked cases treated elsewhere including one in Canada, but there was much fear and speculation across the country of many deaths until the infection was eventually traced back to a single tin of Argentinian corned beef.
The now iconic images of Aberdeen children peering through windows to wave to their grandparents in quarantine may soon be repeated.
Of course in 2020 we have many more technologically advanced ways to keep in touch and while that brings obvious benefits in the workplace and in limiting social isolation, it carries new challenges that did not exist when we last faced a global crisis of this kind.
Through mass communication people have easier access to information – but they also can be the providers of information.
Social media can get more information to more people faster than ever before but the catch is that information can be inaccurate and create unnecessary fear and hysteria faster than ever before.
Indeed in 1964 a mistaken assertion from Aberdeen’s medical officer of health stated that 13-year-old corned beef released from the government’s nuclear stockpile might be the cause of the outbreak. The erroneous information initially gained press interest, public frenzy and increased concerns among citizens.
One of the clear differentials to previous adversity – such as the world wars – is a common enemy. There is no common enemy with the coronavirus and we need to be very careful because in previous periods where disease has ripped through communities, there was a risk of blame. We have seen it in recent history with HIV and Aids, and centuries ago with the plague and other epidemics.
They were times of misinformation, stigmatisation, and stereotypes and the finger of blame pointed at certain groups that had nothing to do with the issues. So, crises like these can bring out the worst in people.
We need to be cautious and to maintain a cooperative collective during this pandemic. It has been achieved before, and can be achieved again. We are stronger together.
Adversity like this can also bring out the best in people. The cholera outbreaks of the 1850s saw heroic medical figures coming through like Dr John Snow, who was hailed for finding the link between water and the disease. Florence Nightingale, who organised medical services in the Crimean War of 1853 to 1856, came out of that as a national hero. Recently Aberdeen University hailed Professor Janet Derbyshire for her work in improving knowledge around TB and HIV. And it is easy to imagine similar leaders stepping up during this crisis.
It is also too soon to say whether we will see the public adopting the Blitz Spirit of the Second World War but one would hope that this is how things unfold, that people will connect. Our NHS is a tremendous national asset and brings out the best of the collectivism in British society. In the Blitz, though, you had state interventions that stopped stockpiling, profiteering and looting.
While in one regard coronavirus could see us retracting into isolationism and hiding behind national borders, the solution to it will come from multiple people with multiple ideas across different borders. We need to make sure this crisis does not help build barricades.
Today’s historians look back on the First World War and see mentions of Spanish flu in letters and diaries. School logbooks from across Scotland contain discussions about the Spanish flu, of schools being closed and of the impact on the local community. We have lost some of that because today’s records are electronic, recording things such as student attendance and exam results. People don’t keep diaries today.
Historians of the future will be trawling through social media posts to try to establish society’s reactions from different geographic locations to the coronavirus.
Will it make its mark in history? Only time will tell.
Neil McLennan is a historian, leadership lecturer and Director of Leadership Programmes at Aberdeen University