And so this week it’s welcome back to an old friend – the Cabinet reshuffle.
When I started in political journalism, a decade ago now, an old hand gave me a crash course in the art.
He told me there are only three stories in Westminster.
One: Is there going to be a general election.
Two: Is the PM going to be toppled by their own troops?
Three: Is there going to be a reshuffle?
Even an EU referendum landing like a meteor in the middle of business as usual and flattening much of the political landscape couldn’t fundamentally alter these inalienable truths. The referendum result became the story of David Cameron’s folly and downfall. And the years that followed were about when Theresa May would call an election, after that how long her party would tolerate her, and after Boris booted her it was back to general election speculation. The result of last year’s vote has put stories one and two to bed. So Cabinet reshuffles are where it’s at for the foreseeable future.
(Though keep an eye out for a sub-plot revolving around the inevitable implosion of Dominic Cummings and whether he takes Boris Johnson down with him.)
The PM is expected to refresh his top team this week.
It’s already an indicator of the new-old politics, the return to stable government and a working majority. For this is a reshuffle through choice. Theresa May’s reshuffles were frequent and enforced, either through desperation or, more often, because one of her colleagues had done something naughty or stupid. Boris Johnson’s done both in his time – repeatedly – yet he emerged from the May calamity as PM. Go figure.
The forthcoming reshuffle was initially billed as a fundamental change in personnel to mark the start of the post-Brexit era. But just as it’s slowly dawned on all at Westminster that Brexit is not in fact ‘done’ – and never will be unless or until the UK rejoins the EU – so the reshuffle has been downgraded.
All the major figures are expected to stay in post – Chancellor Sajid Javid, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Home Secretary Priti Patel.
Changes are expected further down the food chain. And this is where the reshuffle says something fundamental about this administration.
The gossip is that it’s female ministers in the firing line – Therese Coffey at Work and Pensions, Theresa Villiers at the Environment and Business Secretary Andrea Leadsom. The last of these penned a weekend column calling for gender equality around the Cabinet table.
Johnson outriders dismissed Leadsom’s writings as a desperate plea to save her job. But what if they’re not? What if she knows the Downing Street hierarchy better than anyone having been in their orbit since the Vote Leave days and she knows their attitudes to women lack?
The whole Brexit project has been dominated by men – Johnson, Gove, Farage, Barnier. And now the Number 10 team is made up of the sort of chaps who look up to Biff from Back to the Future as their role models.
Is it just coincidence that it’s female Cabinet ministers being talked down? Or is it just another manifestation of something women have suffered for years – their efforts don’t pass muster while equally mediocre men swan on? For example Robert Jenrick, a man so dull he’s nicknamed Robert Generic, appears reshuffle-proof.
The most recent Conservative party ad released last week gave some clues as to the administration’s default mindset. The film saw one of the Tories’ new northern voters explain why they switched from Labour at the election. Representing ‘the North’ (and P&J readers know better than almost anyone that what Westminster deems ‘the North’ is in fact quite far south) was a man in a flat cap. Really. Presumably his whippet and pint of mild was just out of shot. (You wouldn’t find reference to a dog and the word ‘shot’ in such close proximity in a column about the Lib Dems.)
Crucially it added to the suspicion that when the Conservatives talk about Northern voters they are thinking about men. New trains, if they ever happen, might help Mancunian men get to work. More and cheaper childcare would help Wakefield women back to work. But no-one is talking about that.
Luckily there is a tell in the reshuffle process that telegraph’s an administration’s attitude towards women.
In almost every other reshuffle the last job given out is the Women and Equalities brief. It’s an afterthought. Half the population are women. The entire population wants equality for everyone. Yet this role is invariably an add-on. Two of the more engaged equalities ministers in recent years have been Amber Rudd and Penny Mordaunt. One was Home Secretary while she was also responsible for women and equalities, the other was Defence Secretary. Both had the burdensome task of national security. And both were expected to dismantle the patriarchy in any spare moments. Talk about multi-tasking.
Imagine if Johnson’s first announcement is to hand out the women and equalities gig. It would send a powerful message: that his government really is a one nation administration, not just invested in geographic unfairness but dedicated to unpicking gender disparity too.
And to do so would put a new spin on the reshuffle story. But it won’t happen.
When it comes to his interest in women, well, Johnson’s reputation precedes him.
There may be some new faces round the Cabinet table come the weekend, but it’ll be the same old story.
James Millar is a political commentator and author and a former Westminster correspondent for The Sunday Post