Politics is a numbers game. And that’s why there is next to no chance that Boris Johnson will be prime minister after the next election. It may seem some way off. But in this time of such great uncertainty, it’s nice to know one thing is nailed on.
The numbers that ought to do for Johnson’s premiership are of course the Covid death toll figures. It’s increasingly clear that his decision to allow household mixing at Christmas has cost lives. Throughout the coronavirus crisis the Westminster administration has pleaded that no one could’ve prepared for this pandemic and that their response has been guided by science. You can take it or leave it but there’s no disputing it’s a reasonable defence.
But we know that the scientists told the PM three days before Christmas that the situation was getting out of hand. And we also know that the pandemic had been going on for nine months by then. It’s the mark of basic intelligence to be able to learn from experience. And yet the PM (and the devolved administrations) gave the green light to household mixing, the most effective way to spread the virus.
He ought to answer for that decision but whether and when he will be held to account is moot. This is a PM who serially dodges responsibility and accountability.
He hid in a fridge to avoid a TV news crew. And bear in mind that while Donald Trump whipped up a bunch of hoodlums to march on the US Capitol, congressional business resumed that same night. Our leader took a more direct route. In an effort to get Brexit done in autumn 2019, he just shut parliament down. Illegally.
So the chances of Boris Johnson sanctioning an inquiry into the Covid crisis that is sure to find him at best inept and at worst culpable for a string of deadly blunders are nil.
He may yet wriggle out of facing the music for his handling of coronavirus. At least until he’s out of office. And that will happen in May 2024 at the next general election.
Red Wall seats
For some time now the polls have shown Labour and Conservatives running neck and neck. Commentators are not unreasonably baffled by how an administration overseeing overflowing hospitals and emergency morgues is holding its own in popular opinion. The truth is, it doesn’t matter.
The fact Labour are matching the Tories is the important bit. For if they maintain that support they’ll take back a slew of so-called Red Wall seats. The Tories might have won in Labour’s heartlands last time out but they took few of those seats comfortably.
A slight swing back towards Labour paints those constituencies in northern England red again. That won’t be enough alone to put Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street. But there’s a funny thing about Tories. Politically, anyone who isn’t one really doesn’t like them.
After 14 years of Conservative government, which party is going to refuse Starmer’s call to eject them come 2024?
Starmer doesn’t need to beat the Tories. He just needs to stop them winning a majority. One shy of the magic number required to form an administration and the Tories are toast.
Of course Starmer will need to fix up a coalition and the necessary tacit support. But the Northern Irish parties aren’t too pleased with Johnson after his Brexit fudge that’s left supermarket shelves bare there. The Lib Dems now have so little to lose they’ll probably come on board in return for a junior ministerial job for Jamie Stone at the Scotland Office. And that leaves the SNP. No prizes for guessing what they’ll demand in return for parliamentary support. And Starmer might be inclined to grant an indyref by then.
A Labour government in London shows Scots they don’t have to be saddled with the Tories indefinitely. And the SNP are already frayed. Salmond and Sturgeon are locked in combat now; they may yet go over the Reichenbach Falls together leaving the SNP leaderless and rudderless. Even if, like Sherlock Holmes, one of them should survive the fall they’ll be tarnished. From a Unionist perspective, 10 years on from the first independence referendum might be a convenient time to strike.
Of course, if we’ve learned anything in the last 12 months it’s that events can come along and undo every strategy and prediction, so only a fool would bet their house on things playing out exactly as I’ve suggested. But any money placed on Boris Johnson being PM in summer 2024 could be better utilised.
In the week of Burns Night, it’s worth quoting his line that “facts are chiels that winna ding”. Numbers are equally stubborn. The days of the Johnson premiership are already counting down.
James Millar is a political commentator and author and a former Westminster correspondent for The Sunday Post