Life, as the great sage Ronan Keating once taught us, is a rollercoaster upon which we simply gotta ride.
Surely, few of us understand the wisdom of these words better than Nicola Sturgeon? After all, her career has been full of stomach-churning lows and dizzying highs.
Once an inhabitant of the political fringes, fighting a seemingly hopeless cause, Sturgeon is now the dominant politician of her generation. And, while she might not have achieved her aim of making Scotland independent, she is revered by nationalists who believe it’s only a matter of time until she does.
On Wednesday, the SNP leader became the longest-serving first minister since the birth of devolution in 1999.
But, while this was undoubtedly a high for Sturgeon, it was accompanied by a new low. The results of a poll carried out by YouGov cast quite the shadow over Sturgeon’s celebrations.
Almost eight years after Scots voted 55-45 in favour of remaining within the United Kingdom, nothing has changed. Were there to be a second independence referendum tomorrow, Sturgeon would lead the Yes campaign to defeat by exactly the same margin.
Scottish Independence Voting Intention:
YES: 38% (-1)
NO: 46% (+2)
Undecideds: 11% (-2)Undecideds Excluded:
NO: 55% (+2)
YES: 45% (-2)Via @YouGov, On 18-23 May,
Changes w/ 29-31 March.— British Electoral Politics (@electpoliticsuk) May 25, 2022
Details of the first minister’s failure to shift public opinion in favour of independence must have been completely discombobulating for her most committed supporters. Since 2014, Sturgeon has repeatedly assured those voters that they have momentum on their side; defeat in Indyref1 was a blip which would be corrected in Indyref2.
Those who do not count themselves true believers in the independence cause will, I think, be slightly less confused by the first minister’s predicament.
SNP supporters are preparing for a referendum that won’t happen
Sturgeon may have promised to be a leader for all Scots when she succeeded her mentor, Alex Salmond, at the head of government in September 2014, but she has not lived up to her words. She has, for the best part of eight years, had nothing positive to say to the majority of Scots who support the maintenance of the Union.
Year after year, Nicola Sturgeon promises her supporters a second independence referendum that she has no authority to deliver
Sturgeon shows no interest in trying to understand the mindset of those she must persuade to change their minds on independence. Instead, she proclaims this event or that twist will bring unionists over to the nationalist cause.
Year after year, Nicola Sturgeon promises her supporters a second independence referendum that she has no authority to deliver. Even as I write this, SNP activists up and down the country are preparing for a referendum that won’t – despite Sturgeon’s assurances – take place in 2023.
The more the first minister places the constitution above all other matters, the less likely she is to persuade those who voted No in 2014 to change their minds.
So, on we go, trapped on a political rollercoaster with no sign that the ride’s going to end any time soon. It’s getting less fun by the minute.
Euan McColm is a regular columnist for various Scottish newspapers
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