If he was as good as we’re told, the health secretary should be out of sight in the SNP leadership race by now – but he isn’t, writes Chris Deerin.
Voting in the SNP leadership race only opened today, but the contest should already be over.
Humza Yousaf has been enthusiastically backed by most of the senior figures in the party, from Deputy First Minister John Swinney down. Cabinet ministers have said they would think twice about serving if his main challenger, Kate Forbes, were to win. The SNP’s Westminster deputy leader Mhairi Black, that clenched fist in perpetual search of a brawl, has threatened a possible split.
Even Nicola Sturgeon, who promised in her resignation press conference that she wouldn’t pick a side, has made it clear she favours Yousaf. Every time it’s pointed out that the party machine, run by Sturgeon’s husband, has blatantly thrown its weight behind him, the health secretary huffs and blows, like a toddler who denies eating all the chocolate biscuits despite the telltale smudge around his mouth.
With all this institutional might lined up, Yousaf is the anointed one in a party that is used to taking its orders from the top. It should be a walkover. It should be unthinkable that he could lose. And, yet, he still might – and it is worth asking ourselves why.
There is, I think, a degree of bafflement among SNP members and the wider electorate that the best the Sturgeonites can do is propose as her successor someone who has been a minister for 10 years – as he constantly likes to remind us – with almost no record of significant achievement behind him.
The “useless” tag deployed by the opposition parties might not be very nice, but it has a worrying echo of truth to it. Yousaf has been responsible for a public transport system that seemed in recent years to grind to a halt, the failed Hate Crime Bill, and an NHS crisis that feels wholly ungrasped.
This matters. We are not talking about electing a Rotary Club president, but a first minister, responsible for our children’s education, our sick and elderly, and our economic prospects. Competence counts, and questions about Yousaf’s refuse to go away.
He is the candidate of a leadership group that has rarely risen above mediocrity over the past eight years. SNP members liked Sturgeon because she was plausible, charismatic and kept winning elections. But, some of them are aware that this extraordinary period of democratic primacy was not put to best use – they too have kids, family health problems and worries about covering the bills.
Take Humza Yousaf at his word
In the end, Sturgeon offered little but excuses in place of meaningful reform, a series of peripheral policy obsessions that often fell apart on contact with reality, and a failure to convert Scots to independence, despite a UK political environment that could scarcely have been more favourable.
When Yousaf uses the word continuity, one should, therefore, take him at his word. SNP members must consider whether carrying on with the same kind of stuff, but without a figure of Sturgeon’s stature at the helm, is likely to keep the Nats in government or take them any closer to independence.
Yousaf is a low-wattage candidate, the kind who often emerges towards the end of exhausted governments, when the brighter lights have burnt out. In the hustings, there has been little indication that he understands or is interested in policy in any great depth, or that he is genuinely bursting with energy to tackle the central challenges our country faces.
He deploys Sturgeonite buzzwords, such as “progressive” and “wellbeing”, with meaningless, suspicious ease. He flips around on independence strategy depending on what the polls tell him.
SNP is already past the peak of its popularity
The same polls have shown since the race began that the public are more impressed by Forbes. While her strong faith leads her into some positions that are at odds with broad opinion, it also gives a moral authenticity to her commitment to ending poverty, and her desire to fix up the tatty edges of Scotland for the 21st century.
She has said what she thinks, and has been true to herself, despite the condemnation and abuse that followed. That counts for something. She has shown courage and resilience, and there is no denying her potential.
There are senior people in the SNP, including some of those publicly backing Yousaf, who see him as a placeholder
This has not been a fair fight – from the very beginning, SNP HQ has sought to script and direct events in Yousaf’s favour. If he was as good as we’re told, the health secretary should be out of sight by now. But people who are willing to think for themselves have taken a look, and are left only with doubts.
There are senior people in the SNP, including some of those publicly backing him, who see him as a placeholder, to be controlled by the outgoing regime, who will make way for someone better within a few years.
A lot of damage can be done to the SNP’s reputation in that time, and it’s clear the party is already past the peak of its popularity. A Labour government is preparing for power at Westminster, and Scottish Labour is on the up at last.
So, by all means, elect Humza Yousaf, but don’t dare say you weren’t warned about what happens next.
Chris Deerin is a leading journalist and commentator who heads independent, non-party think tank, Reform Scotland
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