The SNP’s Kate Forbes and Labour’s Anas Sarwar have far more in common than either do with Sturgeon and her acolytes, writes Chris Deerin.
These are awful times for Scottish politics. The SNP leadership race isn’t so much Wacky Races as a motorway pile-up. The administration that has ruthlessly ordered our society for the past decade has collapsed, like one of my occasional, ill-advised attempts at baking. The nation is confused, adrift, directionless.
Such is the received wisdom. And, as so often, the received wisdom is wrong.
I’d like to argue that this is, in fact, a moment pregnant with excitement and possibility, and that it will ultimately prove to have been both necessary and the beginning of better times.
A caveat – my premise is based on the principals fulfilling their potential, on being up for a bit of a scrap, and, of course, on that essential political ingredient: a healthy dose of luck.
Let’s start with what is increasingly looking like the outcome of the contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon. Few would have predicted a Kate Forbes victory after that difficult first week, which seemed so badly mishandled that it might have been an act of self-sabotage. But Forbes dug in.
She didn’t take the easy option of quitting. Instead, she kept on, talked about independence, yes, but also about the need to move on from the objective mediocrity of the Sturgeon government.
This only brought further brickbats from those fiercely loyal to the outgoing leader, but Forbes has been adamant: our economy is underperforming, the schools are not doing well enough, and the NHS needs change. None of these crises is inevitable – each is the result of political choices, and the wrong ones.
As the current leadership has imploded – farewell Nicola, Peter Murrell, John Swinney, Liz Lloyd – so Humza Yousaf’s strategy as the continuity candidate has gone with it. All that ministerial support, all those MSPs insisting he was the only possible option, all that effort by the party machine, is failing to push him over the line.
Forbes is still in it, still competing, still looks like she might squeeze past, particularly when Ash Regan drops out and her supporters’ second preferences are redistributed.
Yousaf may still win – who knows? But murmurings within the party suggest this is increasingly unlikely. He is being undone by the public airing of his obvious limitations, and general puzzlement as to why he should be the anointed one.
Through it all, his main competitor has projected dignity, honesty and authenticity. One thing we know for sure is that the public quite likes what it sees.
Forbes and Sarwar have a lot in common
Labour’s approach through all this has been sensible: why interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake? Anas Sarwar has largely kept out of the fray. There will be a time for Labour to hit the accelerator, and it is close, but first let the SNP unhinge itself.
If Forbes wins – and I now suspect she will – the nature of the competition at Holyrood will change. She and Sarwar have far more in common than either do with Sturgeon and her acolytes.
Both see clearly where inactivity and timidity have left Scotland. Both understand the need for a focus on wealth creation and business confidence as a means to growth and sustainability, to enhance national competitiveness in a changing global economy, and to provide the tax revenues that can better fund the public services we all rely on.
Both, too, speak plainly about the need for a rethink of our education system. When I interviewed Forbes for my think tank Reform Scotland a few weeks ago, she was open to restoring Scotland to the international comparative studies that the SNP previously withdrew from. “Data is king,” she said.
Head teachers should have more autonomy to run their schools as they see fit, rather than taking diktat from Edinburgh. A strong education system is the crucible from which all else flows.
Medics are desperate for serious consideration of how the NHS can be reformed so that it works more effectively for our times. More money cannot always be the answer – an independent inquiry into the short, medium and long-term challenges facing the service, followed by action, is essential.
Forbes v Sarwar could reenergise the country
On all these issues, Sturgeon refused to lift her head from consulting the latest polling on independence. Neither Forbes nor Sarwar owes her anything, and are free to chart their own course.
Sarwar is a gifted operator and a smart strategist, but has struggled for attention due to the nationalists’ dominance and long soap opera. The narrowing of the polls and a Labour government at Westminster will boost his profile and guarantee him a hearing from voters.
They must have the courage to bust through the narrow parameters Sturgeon has erected around what is politically acceptable and sayable
It is up to him and some of the impressive individuals on his front bench to show that the party is finally ready for a return to devolved government after so long in the wilderness. They have it in them.
Forbes versus Sarwar is the competition Scotland needs: two young, bright, ambitious leaders with their focus on the big, mainstream policy areas that affect us all. They must have the courage to bust through the narrow parameters Sturgeon has erected around what is politically acceptable and sayable. If they can do that, they – and we – can achieve anything.
Chris Deerin is a leading journalist and commentator who heads independent, non-party think tank, Reform Scotland
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