As we reach the depths of summer, the blistering pace of change since the vote to leave Europe took place now gives us a chance to take some perspective.
But what has not changed is just how momentous the results of the referendum will be for the UK as we know it.
I awoke early that Friday morning with the same sense of profound shock as many did – both here and around the world.
My overriding feeling since has been regret that the strength of sentiment for the UK’s biggest trading partner that swept through Britain like a summer deluge had been more evident before the vote took place.
It might have swayed the voter – mainly in England and Wales – who believed some of the more outrageous fibs the leaders of the leave campaign spouted in what ended up being an often nasty and divisive campaign. Those whose fears about immigration were played upon and who thought there was a pot of gold ready and waiting for the country at the end of a Brexit rainbow.
The truth is the leavers were more filled with passionate intensity, while even some of the strongest supporters of Europe were too equivocal.
I was guilty of this myself, acknowledging Europe’s weaknesses while arguing that staying would be less worse, rather than slamming my fist down insisting it would be better outright.
The trouble is Europe has never been easy, an often grumpy 28-headed hydra of member states all with different needs and challenges. Since the banking crisis the Euro – criticised as being more of a wish and a prayer than a proper currency – has been pushed to breaking point, while the more recent Syria crisis threatened one of the EU’s most precious tenet of free movement of people.
The oft bandied phrase “ever closer union” struck fear in the hearts of even the greatest Europhiles this side of the channel, and from which Prime Minister David Cameron secured only the shakiest of reprieves before the campaign started in earnest.
And now he is gone, to be replaced by Theresa May.
With a potentially down and dirty leadership race now behind the Tory party, the hope is now there is a chance to clarify thoughts so the UK government can start building at least the beginnings of a semblance of a mandate with which our country and its place in the world will be reshaped.
In the meantime, the biggest impact of the vote has been on the value of the pound. Foreign exchange traders reported a massive upsurge in demand on the eve of the referendum as it dawned on people that their once strong pound was at risk of being worth a lot less abroad.
But this is more than just about holiday money – although I deeply regretted not buying some before the vote now. As sterling falls to lows not seen in decades our imports are going to get more expensive – everything from wine to petrol to most goods. In the month of May alone, the UK imported £2.3billion more than it exported, the trade gap having sagged this way for as long as living memory.
So the collapse in value of sterling will galvanise exports, right? Maybe not. A significant number of UK manufacturers will also be relying on importing at least some materials and components, which just got dearer. Although it might just be enough to encourage the world to raise a dram of Scotch which is now more affordable.
Of course, Scotland also has the prospect of staying inside the EU.
My eyes have fairly popped as once steadfast opponents of Scottish Independence – Harry Potter author JK Rowling and former permanent secretary to the Treasury, Sir Nicholas Macpherson are just two – have changed their view in light of the Brexit vote. Many believe Scotland in Europe might be a better bet than being cast adrift in a United Kingdom that has yet to chart its course.
Although there is still a significant rump of supporters of the union who fear Scotland, laboured with debt and deficit, might struggle to fledge. It is ironic, too, that the global collapse in oil prices has actually strengthened the arm of Scottish independence, now that North Sea oil is considered a “nice to have” rather than underpinning an economy based on fanciful expectations of tax receipts.
As Michael Dean, partner of law firm Maclay Murray Spens (MMS) who features in Thelunch so aptly put it – “we are where we are but nobody knows where that is.”
This issue of Thebusiness has at least attempted a good stab at the direction of travel we will be taking once the machinations start grinding forward.
