Labour insiders are becoming increasingly optimistic SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn’s Aberdeen South seat is now in play for the party.
Buoyed by recent polling, the party has turned its attention to the north-east, where it believes it can run a close race with Mr Flynn in the key election battleground.
The sudden shift in focus saw Shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray make a two-day visit to the city this week to meet energy leaders and workers.
In an exclusive interview with the P&J on Wednesday, Mr Murray said his visit was not driven by the polls – but said they do show the party is “competitive” in the city.
A new poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on Tuesday gave Labour a 10-point lead over the SNP, the joint largest lead with any polling company since June 2014.
The extent of this lead has put My Flynn’s seat in the spotlight.
Labour: ‘No bigger scalp’ than Flynn
Asked about the opportunity to take the seat from Mr Flynn, he said: “It’s always nice to take a big scalp and there’s no bigger scalp than the SNP Westminster leader.”
He added: “We’re excited about the opportunity. Polls are polls but they’re a snapshot of today and not a prediction of tomorrow.
“It’s really important to be competitive because the public are demanding change.”
But the party’s electoral chances could well be hampered by stark warnings from experts that their energy plans could risk up to 100,000 North Sea jobs.
They want to increase and extend the windfall tax and support a ban on new North Sea oil and gas licences.
What about Labour’s energy plans?
Mr Murray said the warnings are based on what would happen if there wasn’t a plan in place but said Labour’s green prosperity plan provides that.
“I fully sympathise with people’s concerns because there is little trust in politics, little trust in politicians and little trust that anything beyond the just transition phrase has just been a political phrase”, he added.
“It’s up to us to demonstrate that just transition isn’t just a political phrase but it has to happen and it will happen.”
He also took aim at the SNP for being “all over the place” on their energy policy, which has shown a softening in recent months.
The fury over Labour’s energy proposals has SNP sources feeling confident Labour will not take the seat from them.
One SNP source said: “I can think of 100,000 reasons why the Labour Party will not win in the north-east.”
Meanwhile, Mr Flynn said protecting the North Sea workforce is critical to delivering the transition away from fossil fuels and towards greener forms of energy.
He said: “I’ll certainly not be taking any lectures from a central belt politician when one of the biggest concerns the public in Aberdeen face right now is the looming prospect of his desired Labour government ushering in 100,000 job losses.”
What was the result in 2019?
Mr Flynn won the seat with a majority of 3,990 in 2019 with Labour trailing behind in fourth place, so they would have to make up significant ground to even come close.
The seat is one of the most volatile in the north-east with shifting party allegiances.
Labour held the seat from 1997 to 2015, before the SNP won it in the 2015 race.
But the nationalists lost it just two years later in 2017, when it turned Conservative, before Mr Flynn won it back for the party two years later.
The constituency takes in some of the country’s most affluent areas, including Bieldside, Cults, Ferryhill and the city’s West End, but also includes more traditionally working-class areas of Torry and Kincorth.
This year, the boundaries have changed slightly and new voters from the centre of Aberdeen are now included, adding more uncertainty.
Labour candidate ‘overwhelmed’ by support
Labour’s candidate is Tauqeer Malik, the leader of Aberdeen’s Labour group on the city council and a well-known face in his Lower Deeside ward.
He said he has been “overwhelmed” by the support he is getting on the doors as the party surges ahead in the polls.
His election agent, former Aberdeen councillor Willie Young, said they have delivered more than 100,000 leaflets and letters across the city.
He said: “We have spoken to thousands of people on the doors and it’s obvious to us that from our canvassing that people are saying that it’s time for change.”
But John Wheeler, Tory candidate for the seat, who came second in the seat in 2019, said Labour’s fourth place position last year shows it “simply cannot win”.
He has appealed to voters to back him as the best choice for keeping the SNP out.
Other candidates standing in the seat include Guy Ingerson for the Scottish Greens while the Scottish Lib Dems will announce their candidate by Friday.
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