In the space of just three years, Stephen Flynn went from being a newly elected MP to the SNP’s Westminster leader.
Some SNP veterans have already called for First Minister John Swinney’s departure, citing Mr Flynn as a possible replacement.
Now party insiders, experts, and some old political rivals speak about whether the Aberdeen South MP is a likely contender for the top job.
Would he want the role?
One word unites almost everyone who talks about Mr Flynn: ambitious.
He was seen as carrying out an effective coup to oust Ian Blackford as SNP Westminster leader and take over.
Almost nobody doubts he is keen to lead the party one day, which would involve switching from Westminster to Holyrood.
“He is clearly ambitious,” one SNP source says. “That’s a good thing. Everybody in politics should be ambitious.”
Several SNP insiders agreed, one saying: “He’s too ambitious not to be wanting it.”
Mr Flynn first became an Aberdeen councillor in 2015, and was the SNP’s group leader less than a year later.
Political rivals got an early insight.
“Without a doubt, Mr Flynn has a driving ambition,” says Barney Crockett, a former Labour councillor in the city. “That was clear from the start.”
“He seems pretty ruthless,” says North East Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden, who served on the council before entering Holyrood. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s plotting behind the scenes.”
‘Clear the decks’
But is John Swinney’s job at risk?
Former SNP MP Douglas Chapman said Mr Swinney should quit, saying it’s time to “clear the decks”.
Ex-SNP health chief Alex Neil, who ran against Mr Swinney to lead the party in 2000, says he was Nicola Sturgeon’s “chief cheerleader” and should go.
Both named Mr Flynn – along with Highlands MSP Kate Forbes – as ideal replacements.
But SNP insiders cautioned against any immediate change.
One source said: “The general election came so early in John Swinney’s period as party leader. He is entirely deserving of a pass.”
Mr Flynn wouldn’t be the first SNP politician to switch Westminster for Holyrood. Health chief Neil Gray did the same in 2021.
But it does present some challenges, especially given the nationalists could lose seats in 2026 – and there are lots of newly out-of-work former MPs eyeing Holyrood.
“He could lose an equivalent seat in Aberdeen. I think it’s now more difficult,” says James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University.
He doubts Mr Flynn could take the SNP back to power after a defeat in 2026.
“I don’t think he’s a credible future leader,” he added. “I think they’ll be wanting deeper thinkers.”
Mr Flynn hasn’t ruled out a move to Holyrood in the future.
The SNP Westminster chief regularly praised Humza Yousaf when he was party leader, and his relationship with Mr Swinney has been similar.
By contrast, Highland MSP Ms Forbes – who ran to succeed Ms Sturgeon in 2023 – has spent years in senior cabinet posts.
One SNP source said Mr Flynn’s lack of experience is not necessarily a drawback, since no nationalists had ever been in government before the party won power.
They said: “Good politicians can adapt. The SNP all had to adapt overnight in 2007.”
What has Mr Flynn said about the job?
Mr Flynn hasn’t ruled out a move to Holyrood in the future.
The SNP Westminster chief regularly praised Humza Yousaf when he was party leader, and his relationship with Mr Swinney has been similar.
But in 2022 Mr Flynn denied an attempted coup to get rid of Mr Blackford – weeks before he ended up replacing him anyway.
And he was forced to deny being the pivotal influence who pushed for the SNP’s Holyrood deal with the Greens to end, which cost Mr Yousaf his job.
A source close to Mr Flynn said: “He thinks John is the guy to unite the party. There’s no doubt about that.”
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