Do the Lib Dems really have a hope of beating SNP’s Kate Forbes?

Kate Forbes swept home with 56% of the vote in her Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch seat at the last Holyrood election.

The deputy first minister picked up more than 24,000 votes – contrasting with the Lib Dems in third with fewer than 7,000.

Highlander Ms Forbes has the largest majority of any MSP in Scotland.

In those circumstances, you’d maybe think she’s certain to win again.

But a shock Highland success in last year’s Westminster election means the Lib Dems are buoyant about claiming a totemic win next May.

Former sub-postmaster Andrew Baxter, a Fort William councillor, is the man tasked with beating John Swinney’s second in command in the Scottish Government.

He won a by-election in the Lochaber town last November with 58% of the vote.

“I think we have every chance,” he said, speaking to The Press and Journal at the Lib Dem party conference in Inverness.

“Although Kate has a big majority, I think it’s a fragile one.”

Mr Baxter also works for Lib Dem MP Angus MacDonald, who represents Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire.

He was elected against the odds last July in a major upset against the SNP.

That success is fuelling Mr Baxter’s hopes next year.

“Everyone had written off our chances,” he told the P&J.

Before joining the Lib Dems, Mr Baxter served on the council as an independent.

He also stood twice for the Tories and worked for ex-Conservative minister Brandon Lewis.

Will that background help or hinder his chances in 2026?

Mr Baxter doesn’t reckon it matters.

“I don’t think it makes much difference,” he said.

“My nationalist opponents will want to focus on the fact I have been a Conservative, and there’s no hiding from that.

“The beauty of living in a democracy is people can change their minds. If we didn’t have that, we’d be stuck in a dictatorship.”

Mr Baxter said he only stood for the Tories at the 2022 local election as a “favour to a friend”, since the party was struggling to find candidates.

On Friday, the headline act at Lib Dem party conference was linked to another Conservative – this time the defecting MSP Jamie Greene who said he’d had enough of being in a “Reform-lite” party at Holyrood.

The P&J also caught up with Lib Dem boss Ed Davey at the Inverness gathering – and he was similarly optimistic.

“I think we’ve got a great chance across the Highlands,” he told us at the Eden Court conference venue.

“Look at the result Andrew got in that Fort William by-election.”

But nationalists are keen to downplay Lib Dem hopes at the election.

Inverness and Nairn MSP Fergus Ewing has been a close ally of Ms Forbes despite his drift away from the SNP.

“Kate Forbes has the largest majority in Scotland,” he said.

“She is widely trusted and admired across the political spectrum.

“This is mere braggadocio from the Lib Dems.”

A spokesperson for Ms Forbes kept it brief, saying: “Kate has always worked constructively with Mr Baxter, when he was an independent councillor, then a Tory candidate, and now a Lib Dem hopeful.”

What do the experts think?

Elections expert Allan Faulds, who runs Ballot Box Scotland, believes an upset is possible – but a tough ask.

“I wouldn’t write them off given their success in the overlapping Westminster seat, but I also think it’ll be much harder than that one,” he said.

But he reckons the party is a “shoo-in” to win the neighbouring Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross seat, currently held by Maree Todd.

Inverness and Nairn – currently represented by Mr Ewing – is a seat where he thinks the Lib Dems “don’t stand much of a chance”.