The cross-party group deliberating over new powers for Holyrood has been warned of a possible £5billion budget shortfall if North Sea receipts were devolved.
Experts at the Fiscal Affairs Scotland (FAS) think-tank said that “relatively low” revenues from the sector must be considered before any move to give MSPs control of offshore taxes.
The Scottish Government has called for the Edinburgh parliament to be given powers over all taxes, as part of a shake-up in the wake of the No vote in last month’s independence referendum.
The first session of all-party Smith Commission talks to agree a devolution deal will be held in Scotland’s capital today.
Yesterday, an FAS report suggested that Scotland could face a budget deficit of between £2.6billion and £5billion if North Sea money replaced more stable funding from the Barnett formula grant.
Author John McLaren said: “The latest oil revenue data brings into focus Scotland’s future fiscal position under different funding scenarios.
“In particular, the Smith Commission needs to take into account the potential impact of continuing relatively low levels of North Sea revenues on Scotland’s budget, if North Sea revenues are to be part of any negotiated package.
“Our calculations suggest that, across a wide range of assumptions, full fiscal autonomy could lead to a significant shortfall in funding over what the current system delivers.”
Alex Johnstone, Conservative MSP for the north-east, said: “The warnings made before the referendum on the impact of falling oil revenues on a separate Scottish economy still stand.
“If oil was fully devolved, as would be the case under full fiscal powers, Scotland would be extremely vulnerable to a notoriously volatile commodity.”
Scottish Labour’s Jenny Marra said: “The SNP’s proposals to the Smith Commission would simply expose Scotland’s finances to falling oil revenues and unmanageable fiscal shocks exactly as independence would have.”
A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “Scotland has generated more tax per head than the UK as a whole in each of the last 33 years.
“Responsibility for oil and gas taxation would provide Scotland with the opportunity to exercise responsible stewardship of the North Sea resources and maximise its benefits, in contrast to the short term approach to oil and gas taxation that has been adopted by UK Government.”