A former Scotland Office minister has said Boris Johnson is on “probation” with his party but his chances of remaining prime minister are “very slim”.
Lord Duncan admitted the Conservative leader was still in “troubled waters”, despite surviving a confidence vote of Tory MPs in the wake of the partygate scandal.
The peer, who was born and raised in Perthshire, is deputy speaker of the House of Lords, having previously served as an MEP and as a minister in the Scotland Office.
Speaking to Gary Robertson on BBC Scotland’s Sunday Show, Lord Duncan said the Tory party would not hesitate to get rid of Mr Johnson if he was unable to quickly draw a line under the row about rule-breaking gatherings at Downing Street during the pandemic.
“He has got a task ahead of him right now and he is on probation,” he said.
“If he fails on probation, the Tory party will do what it always does when its leaders that are not delivering, they will remove him.
“He probably is in troubled waters. He’s got a bit of time, he can turn this around, if he can make people almost forget what has happened over the last few months – then he has a slim chance of carrying on. I would have thought that would be very slim.”
Mr Johnson won 59% in the confidence vote last week, with 211 Tory MPs backing him and 148 voting against.
But the scale of opposition to the prime minister means doubts remain about his future.
Lord Duncan said: “The call will be made a party that really is quite mercenary when it comes to leaders who are not delivering.
‘They stab them in the face’
“Over the past 20 years, when a leader has not been able to do what they were meant to do, the Tory party don’t stab them in the back, they stab them in the face. If they are not delivering, they are removed.”
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross was one of the four MPs from north of the border who voted against the prime minister, having previously U-turned on his resignation calls.
Lord Duncan defended the Moray MP, saying: “The important thing is that Douglas Ross got it right when it mattered.
“When it mattered, he cast a vote for what he believed to be right.
“He did so against a prime minister, a leader of a party which he has belonged to for many years. That in itself is a good sign.
Rapprochement
“The real test now, over the coming months, is how a rapprochement created between the leader of the United Kingdom party and the leader of the Scottish party.
“That will be a test both for Boris Johnson and for Douglas Ross, but they both must rise to that test because there is a country to be governed and you can’t simply abdicate.
“You need to be able to work collaboratively, even with people you don’t necessarily enjoy or hold a degree of confidence in.”