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Ian Blackford claims Boris Johnson has paved the way for independence – but is that true?

SNP Westminster chief Ian Blackford insisted Boris Johnson drove support for independence to new heights, as the outgoing prime minister waved a bizarre “hasta la vista, baby” to his rivals.

It was a typically fiery exchange as the two leaders made competing claims about what Scots think about the future of the UK.

Beyond the soundbites, do those claims stand up to scrutiny?

A look at polling trends suggest Mr Johnson’s tumultuous term in office has made little difference in the end.

The most recent poll suggests independence support is one point lower than when he was sworn in as prime minister.

Polling figures

A poll from former Tory peer Lord Ashcroft just after Mr Johnson entered 10 Downing Street found 46% of voters in Scotland backed independence, while 43% were opposed.

When undecided voters at the time were excluded from the final results, 52% were in favour of dissolving the union.

There were peaks along the way, including a big 59% Yes poll bounce in October 2020 and more sustained pro-independence support across that year.

But the most recent Panelbase poll – released at the start of July – indicated 48% backed a Yes vote, while 47% were still against breaking up the UK.

The result is 51-49 for the union when people who don’t know are removed from the calculations.

alba party polling
Professor Sir John Curtice.

The outgoing prime minister has consistently been unpopular in Scotland and nationalists have branded him a “recruiting sergeant” for the independence campaign.

Scottish polling expert Sir John Curtice previously told us Mr Johnson’s departure will have little impact on the fate of the union.

He said: “People are not voting for independence because they dislike Boris Johnson.”

Final Prime Minister’s Questions

At Mr Johnson’s final Prime Minister’s Questions appearance on Wednesday afternoon, Mr Blackford said Scotland is on its way out of the UK regardless.

It comes weeks after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon proposed October 19 next year for a referendum.

Boris Johnson said Ian Blackford should ‘retire’ to his croft.

He said: “Personally, I would like to thank the Prime Minister in his capacity as minister of the union for driving support for independence to new heights.

“Westminster is holding Scotland back. The economy is failing and this Prime Minister has driven us to the brink of recession.

“Isn’t it the case that the Prime Minister’s legacy of catastrophic mismanagement has paved the way for the end of the Union?”

‘Law breaker’

He also branded the PM a law breaker.

“Let us not forget, the Prime Minister is still under investigation because he can’t be trusted to tell the truth.

“Shameful, disgraceful, and a complete waste of Scotland’s time. This is how the people of Scotland will remember this Prime Minister.

“Isn’t it the case that the Prime Minister and his Government should have had his last day a long time ago?

“Quite simply, Downing Street is no place for a lawbreaker.”

Boris Johnson replied: “The personal abuse stuff, I think he is talking a lot of tosh.

“When he is retired to his croft, which may be all too soon, I hope he will reflect on his long-running campaign to break up the greatest country in the world.”