The Supreme Court is set to make a decision this morning which could have profound consequences for Scotland’s immediate future in the UK.
Nicola Sturgeon might end up less than a year away from a referendum, or she could be sent back to the drawing board.
On the eve of the judges’ response, polling experts, strategists and politicians gathered at Glasgow University and gave their thoughts about what could happen next.
1. The polling guru
Professor Sir John Curtice says the argument may not be resolved any time soon.
The polling expert said: “The first answer we might possibly get is no answer, which will leave everybody still arguing about the issues.”
Prof Curtice thinks the SNP took an unusual approach by going to the Supreme Court before voting on the matter in Holyrood.
The Strathclyde University expert said Ms Sturgeon had gone to the courts because Scotland’s top law officer, the Lord Advocate, was “clearly unsure” about whether a referendum is viable.
He said: “This is Nicola Sturgeon and the Lord Advocate trying to get themselves off that hook.”
2. The Labour 2014 veteran
The first minister’s plan, should the Supreme Court rule against a referendum, is to turn the next UK election into a vote on independence.
But ex-Scottish Labour chief Kezia Dugdale thinks this will be difficult for the SNP due to the cost-of-living crisis.
She said: “I think the SNP’s tactics at the start of the summer were very smart, but I think the world has changed significantly over the summer.
“It will be incredibly difficult for the SNP to set the frame of the next election. They will have to revisit that strategy.
She added: “The poverty pandemic means it will be impossible for the SNP to make the next election about the constitutional question.”
3. The ‘now is not the time’ Highland Tory
Highland Tory MSP Donald Cameron knows courts don’t always give politicians a clear route.
He said: “I’ve spent my professional life as a lawyer thinking I’ve known which way the court judgement is going to go and been proven wrong. I’m not going to hazard a guess.
“There is a third possibility which shouldn’t be discounted, which is that they say it’s not for them to rule upon.”
The Conservative MSP is confident his party can stave off a vote and believes most Scots would rather focus on other priorities.
He told the audience: “I don’t think there’s any public appetite for a referendum. I think people feel now is not the time.”
4. The eye-on-the-prize ex MP
Former North East Fife MP Stephen Gethins, who now works at St Andrews University, said the push for independence will go on even if the Supreme Court rejects the case for a referendum.
The ex-SNP politician said: “Regardless of what’s said, independence isn’t going away.
“Governments are elected to deliver on their promises. The SNP were elected on a commitment to hold an independence referendum.
“The judges will say whatever they think the law reflects, but that doesn’t change public opinion, and it’s for the politicians to campaign on the politics of this.”
5. The patient Yes campaign strategist
Stephen Noon, who was head strategist for the Yes campaign, thinks it’s likely judges will either rule against the SNP or refuse to reach a verdict.
But despite his support for independence, he wants to see a referendum delayed even if it’s a positive result for Ms Sturgeon’s party.
Mr Noon, who now works at Edinburgh University, said Scotland needs to be united for a breakup from the UK to succeed.
He said: “I think there’s a process we need to go through before there’s a referendum.
“We need to have a referendum at some point, but it should come after a conversation in Scotland where we’re working out – what is the future we want for our country?
“Even if it’s a yes tomorrow I would like there to be a bit of a pause.
“Independence needs not just winning campaigns, it needs nation-building. We haven’t yet done the nation-building necessary to have another referendum.”
Conversation