Calendar An icon of a desk calendar. Cancel An icon of a circle with a diagonal line across. Caret An icon of a block arrow pointing to the right. Email An icon of a paper envelope. Facebook An icon of the Facebook "f" mark. Google An icon of the Google "G" mark. Linked In An icon of the Linked In "in" mark. Logout An icon representing logout. Profile An icon that resembles human head and shoulders. Telephone An icon of a traditional telephone receiver. Tick An icon of a tick mark. Is Public An icon of a human eye and eyelashes. Is Not Public An icon of a human eye and eyelashes with a diagonal line through it. Pause Icon A two-lined pause icon for stopping interactions. Quote Mark A opening quote mark. Quote Mark A closing quote mark. Arrow An icon of an arrow. Folder An icon of a paper folder. Breaking An icon of an exclamation mark on a circular background. Camera An icon of a digital camera. Caret An icon of a caret arrow. Clock An icon of a clock face. Close An icon of the an X shape. Close Icon An icon used to represent where to interact to collapse or dismiss a component Comment An icon of a speech bubble. Comments An icon of a speech bubble, denoting user comments. Comments An icon of a speech bubble, denoting user comments. Ellipsis An icon of 3 horizontal dots. Envelope An icon of a paper envelope. Facebook An icon of a facebook f logo. Camera An icon of a digital camera. Home An icon of a house. Instagram An icon of the Instagram logo. LinkedIn An icon of the LinkedIn logo. Magnifying Glass An icon of a magnifying glass. Search Icon A magnifying glass icon that is used to represent the function of searching. Menu An icon of 3 horizontal lines. Hamburger Menu Icon An icon used to represent a collapsed menu. Next An icon of an arrow pointing to the right. Notice An explanation mark centred inside a circle. Previous An icon of an arrow pointing to the left. Rating An icon of a star. Tag An icon of a tag. Twitter An icon of the Twitter logo. Video Camera An icon of a video camera shape. Speech Bubble Icon A icon displaying a speech bubble WhatsApp An icon of the WhatsApp logo. Information An icon of an information logo. Plus A mathematical 'plus' symbol. Duration An icon indicating Time. Success Tick An icon of a green tick. Success Tick Timeout An icon of a greyed out success tick. Loading Spinner An icon of a loading spinner. Facebook Messenger An icon of the facebook messenger app logo. Facebook An icon of a facebook f logo. Facebook Messenger An icon of the Twitter app logo. LinkedIn An icon of the LinkedIn logo. WhatsApp Messenger An icon of the Whatsapp messenger app logo. Email An icon of an mail envelope. Copy link A decentered black square over a white square.

Here’s what Scotland’s political experts have to say ahead of today’s Supreme Court independence ruling

Nicola Sturgeon says she wants a referendum as soon as next October. Image: DC Thomson
Nicola Sturgeon says she wants a referendum as soon as next October. Image: DC Thomson

The Supreme Court is set to make a decision this morning which could have profound consequences for Scotland’s immediate future in the UK.

Nicola Sturgeon might end up less than a year away from a referendum, or she could be sent back to the drawing board.

On the eve of the judges’ response, polling experts, strategists and politicians gathered at Glasgow University and gave their thoughts about what could happen next.


1. The polling guru

Professor Sir John Curtice says the argument may not be resolved any time soon.

alba party polling
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. Image: Allan Milligan.

The polling expert said: “The first answer we might possibly get is no answer, which will leave everybody still arguing about the issues.”

Prof Curtice thinks the SNP took an unusual approach by going to the Supreme Court before voting on the matter in Holyrood.

The Strathclyde University expert said Ms Sturgeon had gone to the courts because Scotland’s top law officer, the Lord Advocate, was “clearly unsure” about whether a referendum is viable.

He said: “This is Nicola Sturgeon and the Lord Advocate trying to get themselves off that hook.”

2. The Labour 2014 veteran

Ex-Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale.

The first minister’s plan, should the Supreme Court rule against a referendum, is to turn the next UK election into a vote on independence.

But ex-Scottish Labour chief Kezia Dugdale thinks this will be difficult for the SNP due to the cost-of-living crisis.

She said: “I think the SNP’s tactics at the start of the summer were very smart, but I think the world has changed significantly over the summer.

“It will be incredibly difficult for the SNP to set the frame of the next election. They will have to revisit that strategy.

She added: “The poverty pandemic means it will be impossible for the SNP to make the next election about the constitutional question.”

3. The ‘now is not the time’ Highland Tory

Highland Tory MSP Donald Cameron.

Highland Tory MSP Donald Cameron knows courts don’t always give politicians a clear route.

He said: “I’ve spent my professional life as a lawyer thinking I’ve known which way the court judgement is going to go and been proven wrong. I’m not going to hazard a guess.

“There is a third possibility which shouldn’t be discounted, which is that they say it’s not for them to rule upon.”

The Conservative MSP is confident his party can stave off a vote and believes most Scots would rather focus on other priorities.

He told the audience: “I don’t think there’s any public appetite for a referendum. I think people feel now is not the time.”

4. The eye-on-the-prize ex MP

Ex-SNP MP Stephen Gethins. Image: Kenny Smith.

Former North East Fife MP Stephen Gethins, who now works at St Andrews University, said the push for independence will go on even if the Supreme Court rejects the case for a referendum.

The ex-SNP politician said: “Regardless of what’s said, independence isn’t going away.

“Governments are elected to deliver on their promises. The SNP were elected on a commitment to hold an independence referendum.

“The judges will say whatever they think the law reflects, but that doesn’t change public opinion, and it’s for the politicians to campaign on the politics of this.”

5. The patient Yes campaign strategist

Former Yes Scotland head strategist Stephen Noon.

Stephen Noon, who was head strategist for the Yes campaign, thinks it’s likely judges will either rule against the SNP or refuse to reach a verdict.

But despite his support for independence, he wants to see a referendum delayed even if it’s a positive result for Ms Sturgeon’s party.

Mr Noon, who now works at Edinburgh University, said Scotland needs to be united for a breakup from the UK to succeed.

He said: “I think there’s a process we need to go through before there’s a referendum.

“We need to have a referendum at some point, but it should come after a conversation in Scotland where we’re working out – what is the future we want for our country?

“Even if it’s a yes tomorrow I would like there to be a bit of a pause.

“Independence needs not just winning campaigns, it needs nation-building. We haven’t yet done the nation-building necessary to have another referendum.”

Conversation