It will come as no surprise that, as one of Kate Forbes’ campaign team, I was disappointed at the outcome of Monday’s SNP leadership result.
However, she can be satisfied that having begun her campaign after months away from Parliament on maternity leave, from a standing start, she ran Humza Yousaf extremely close.
Remember, that as well as having one of the highest profile jobs in Parliament, his campaign had the backing of virtually the entire SNP establishment – ministers, headquarters, and even special advisers.
Despite this, he won the contest only narrowly. In fact, the majority of members who took part cast their votes against him, either for Kate Forbes or Ash Regan. He only sneaked over the 50% mark thanks to second preference votes from Ash.
There’s the additional fact that over 21,000 party members did not even bother voting, resulting in Humza being elected leader, and de facto First Minister, with just 34% support from among his own party.
‘Herculean task’
He is someone I have known for many years, and who I like on a personal level, but he now faces a Herculean task as First Minister.
He has a divided party behind him, as well as a sizeable minority of disgruntled MSPs on the backbenches.
He faces a Labour Party revitalised and leading in the polls at a UK level, and led in Scotland by Anas Sarwar, one of his former schoolmates from one of Glasgow’s most expensive fee-paying schools.
He will also labour under the burden of being seen as the continuity candidate, carrying on with many of the same ministerial team, special advisers, and party staff.
Kate Forbes was at pains to say during her campaign that “continuity won’t cut it”, and she was correct. A complete reset of government, of the party, and of policy is required, and I do not think we will see that under a Humza leadership.
When Nicola Sturgeon took over as First Minister, she inherited a party whose membership was optimistic and growing rapidly in the aftermath of the referendum defeat, and a government which was seen as highly competent.
‘In freefall and divided’
Humza inherits a party whose membership is in freefall and divided, and a government whose reputation, whether on health, education, or transport is dreadful.
There’s also the problem of the Greens. Under the new leadership, they will retain their place in government. For many within the SNP, the Greens’ involvement in the coalition has resulted, too often, in the tail wagging the dog.
It’s worth remembering that the two issues which have given the Scottish Government so many headaches and bad publicity over the past few months – the Deposit Return Scheme and the Gender Reform Regulations – were both very much driven by the Greens.
Yet from early in the contest, Humza Yousaf nailed his colours firmly to continuing the coalition.
The likelihood is that had either Kate Forbes or Ash Regan won, the Greens would have walked. And many in the SNP would have happily waved them goodbye.
Over the next few days, we’ll see the final line-up of the new Cabinet, with the junior ministerial team put in place over the Easter recess. Don’t expect to see many new or unexpected faces.
Meanwhile, over at SNP headquarters, a police investigation into financial irregularities within the party continues.
The new First Minister won’t have his problems to seek in the coming weeks.
Campbell Gunn is a former SNP adviser who helped in the Kate Forbes campaign.
Conversation