John Swinney will learn whether his road to Bute House will be a smoothe one on Monday as nominations to become the next SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland close.
The party’s group of MSPs in Holyrood were hopeful the SNP could avoid a bitter leadership contest after Kate Forbes ruled herself out.
With only former deputy first minister Mr Swinney coming forward as a candidate, it seems likely he will enjoy a coronation.
The Press and Journal understands early discussions between Mr Swinney and permanent secretary John-Paul Marks, the Scottish Government’s most senior civil servant, have already taken place.
It comes after party member Graeme McCormick ruled himself out of the contest, saying he would not stand for election despite having the required level of support.
Mr McCormick, who stood to become SNP president in 2023, said he made the decision to abandon his leadership bid after a “lengthy and fruitful conversation” with John Swinney.
If Mr McCormick has made it onto the ballot, SNP members would have been given a vote on whether he or Mr Swinney should replace Humza Yousaf as party leader.
Activist stands down
In a statement on Sunday, Mr McCormick said: “John and I agreed the challenges which the SNP, our government and our people face, and explored new thinking on a range of issues which I am confident, as they are advanced, will inspire activists both within the SNP and wider independence movement in the following weeks and months.
“This is a fresh start for our members and our politicians, and I’m sure that John’s determination to deliver independence will be rewarded at the forthcoming general election.
“I have therefore concluded that I shall not proceed with my nomination for party leader but instead support John Swinney’s nomination for party leader and first minister of Scotland.”
What happens next, and how will John Swinney become first minister?
Monday afternoon
If there is no internal ballot of SNP members, Mr Swinney could become his party’s leader as early as Monday afternoon if events follow a similar timetable to when Humza Yousaf took over from Nicola Sturgeon.
Tuesday
On Tuesday the Scottish Parliament would hold a debate on who it should nominate as First Minister.
Opposition leaders are free to nominate themselves, but Mr Swinney would only need more votes than all of the other candidates combined – a simple majority – to win parliament’s recommendation to the King.
Wednesday
If John Swinney is successfully nominated as first minister he will be appointed via Royal Warrant – a legal document authorised by the King.
On Wednesday morning he would be sworn in by the Lord President at the Court of Session, Scotland’s supreme court.
This would mark Mr Swinney’s formal appointment as First Minister of Scotland.
The Courier understands Mr Swinney has already had conversations with the permanent secretary of the Scottish Government, and it’s likely these would continue as he sets out his government’s priorities.
On Wednesday afternoon he may focus on appointing his cabinet, assigning roles such as deputy first minister and health secretary. These roles are subject to parliament’s approval.
Thursday
Mr Swinney is likely to take part in his first session of First Minister’s Questions.