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Analysis: Theresa May’s snap election U-turn is a shock but no real surprise

Prime Minister Theresa May
Prime Minister Theresa May

Theresa May’s Easter break in north Wales seems to have given her time to think.

Over the past few months – despite Labour’s abysmal poll ratings – Number 10 has repeatedly ruled out a snap election.

But she’s changed her mind – that’s exactly what the country is now facing.

And while the news came as a shock, it isn’t surprising.

Because opposition to Mrs May’s approach to Brexit has been growing.

With her slim majority, getting the necessary legislation through parliament was looking increasingly difficult.

As the prime minister put it, “division in Westminster” would “risk our ability to make a success of Brexit”.

She concluded: “Let us remove the risk of uncertainty and instability.”

Of course from her point of view, a landslide victory would undoubtedly remove that uncertainty and furnish her with a personal mandate.

But the election campaign will get underway as the Brexit negotiations begin.

So it’s hard to see the rest of the European Union seeing this in the same terms.

Spare a thought also for the British voter – now facing another electoral event as these things are called in official jargon.

One thing’s for sure – it will be an intense campaign focused largely on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

Because it provides an opportunity for those opposed to Brexit to change the course set by the June 23 vote.

Mrs May is often described as a cautious figure, but her Brexit strategy has shown a different side to the Tory leader.

And this announcement is in keeping with that bolder streak.

She was at pains, however, to stress she had come to the decision “reluctantly” and only “recently” – clearly keen to tell voters this is not a conclusion she came to lightly.

There are other senior figures in the party, however, who probably thought it was too good an opportunity to miss – with Labour likely to lose many constituencies.

On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats, who have been calling for a referendum on the final Brexit deal, could increase their share of the vote, although this may not translate into seats.

So the stage is set for Mrs May to tighten her grip on the reins of power.