Here are nine things that could happen following today’s General Election results:
1) Theresa May resigns
A huge question mark is hanging over the future of the prime minister this morning. She staked it all on achieving a strong mandate and an enlarged group of MPs to go into the Brexit negotiations, but it now appears a catastrophic miscalculation. Former chancellor George Osborne, who she sacked, last night gleefully predicted that Mrs May would be unable to continue if she did worse than he and David Cameron did in 2015. If so, she would be the shortest-serving prime minister in almost a century.
2) Boris and others stake their claim
If the final result triggers Mrs May’s departure, an intense leadership battle would quickly get under way in the Conservative Party. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Philip Hammond, Sajid Javid and Michael Gove were all being touted as possible successors last night.
3) Corbyn’s coalition
An emboldened Jeremy Corbyn could seek power if the Tories lose their majority and descend into turmoil. Depending on his final tally of MPs, his Labour Party could seek to govern alone or attempt a delicate series of negotiations to pull together an alliance, which may require some kind of cooperation from the SNP. Such a scenario would represent one of the most incredible stories in British political history, with Mr Corbyn overcoming opposition from most of his own MPs, and the bulk of the media, to defy the doubters and become prime minister.
4) Economic turmoil
The value of the pound already plunged last night in the wake of the exit poll predicting a hung parliament. A minority government or protracted coalition negotiations, and a potential search for a new prime minister – all on the eve of Brexit negotiations – would only serve to send these jitters into overdrive.
5) Fresh Brexit debate
Theresa May asked for the country to send her to Brussels with a strong hand for the country’s Brexit negotiations, but voters did not deliver it. A fresh debate about the kind of Brexit that is desired now seems inevitable, and it will leave Britain’s negotiating position in disarray. Demands could also grow for the final deal to be put to a second referendum, meaning Brexit might not even happen at all.
6) Indyref dilemma
The SNP could end up in the curious position of being able to negotiate to secure the powers to hold a second independence referendum in return for helping Labour gain power, but with the party in a much weakened position and Nicola Sturgeon concerned about any ability to deliver a Yes vote. The SNP might end up not wanting the referendum it has been demanding after all, while its supporters – and privately even its Scottish Labour and Conservative opponents – would want to “bring it on”.
7) Focus on Northern Ireland
If the final numbers are tight, Northern Irish MPs could end up as kingmakers. The DUP and other unionists, who could have 10 or 11 MPs, would be unlikely to work with Mr Corbyn’s Labour, but may be open to backing the Tories. On the other hand, Sinn Fein had four MPs in the last parliament could be prepared to help Mr Corbyn take power, but would have to first end its boycott of Westminster. Labour may have to offer a referendum on a united Ireland to tempt Sinn Fein.
8) Another election
Any inability to form a functioning government would make another election inevitable, possibly in October. It would be the third Westminster vote in two-and-a-half years, and for Scots, it would mean their sixth trip to the polls in three years, after two referendums, a Holyrood vote and council elections on top of the general elections.
9) Corbyn vs Trump
The relationship between two of history’s most unlikely world leaders, in US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn, would be unlikely to be harmonious. Mr Trump’s proposed state visit to the UK might be the first casualty of the Labour leader moving to 10 Downing Street.