A hard Brexit could push “Scottish independence over the line”, Tony Blair has said.
The former Labour prime minister, speaking at an event marking 20 years of devolution, blamed “Brexiteers in England” for putting strain on the Union and said a second EU referendum was now the only way to “heal” the nation.
Mr Blair also said that there needed to be more discussion about how we have “a British and UK identity and not just an English, Scottish, Irish, Welsh identity” and suggested putting “the football leagues together” as one way to reflect that.
Speaking at the Institute for Government think tank, he said: “Are there still pressures for secession? Well, in Scotland, yes, but I still think they won’t succeed unless Brexit pushes us into a position where that kind of gets Scottish independence over the line – if you have hard Brexit, which is possible.
“The Union can survive Brexit but we’re underestimating the struggle. If you do a hard Brexit then, yes, it will put a strain on the Union. We can overcome it, but you’re going to have to work very hard to do it.”
Mr Blair agreed that it would be “very hard” to resist demands for a second referendum on Scottish independence if Brexit went through.
He said: “Yes, the facts will have changed, but I still think we should be very careful doing it unless it’s clear that there’s a huge groundswell for it. You know, one of things that Brexit has taught us is the danger of playing around with referendums.
“One of the things that we’ve really got to rediscover after Brexit is out of the way is what makes us the UK, because we really have divided.
“I’m quite shocked by the amount of people who are Brexiteers in England who, when you put to them that it could cause a strain on the Union, just kind of shrug their shoulders and say, ‘well, we don’t care’. It’s just really shocking.”
Mr Blair’s comments come as the current Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn prepares for a showdown with MPs and activists over a second Brexit referendum.
Mr Corbyn will face huge pressure to give a cast-iron pledge that there must be a confirmatory vote on the UK’s membership when the party’s ruling National Executive Committee meets today.