An explosive new poll has predicted that Labour is on the brink of a catastrophe at next year’s UK elections – with the SNP poised to win 54 of Scotland’s 59 seats.
The Ipsos Mori survey sent shockwaves through Holyrood and Westminster yesterday.
It showed Labour would secure 23% of the vote in its Scottish heartland if the election was held today, cutting its representation from 40 to four seats.
The SNP would win the backing of 52% of the electorate, dramatically swelling its ranks in the Commons from six to 54, and potentially handing the party the balance of power.
While many commentators still believe such a result remains unlikely, the poll confirmed a huge surge in support for the Nationalists since the independence referendum, and underlined the scale of the task facing Labour.
Leader Ed Miliband, who was north of the border last night for a party dinner, would have little chance of becoming prime minister if the poll’s predictions were correct.
Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish secretary and northern isles MP, would be the only Liberal Democrat to survive in Scotland if the survey was translated into a result in May.
He would also be the only non-SNP MP in the north and north-east.
The gains for the Nationalists would include the Highland constituencies of Chief Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander, former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy, John Thurso and Alan Reid.
In the north-east, the SNP would take Aberdeen North and Aberdeen South from Labour, while seizing Gordon and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine from the Lib Dems.
Nicola Sturgeon, who is due to be appointed SNP leader and first minister next month, said: “There is a lot of work to be done in the weeks and months ahead of the general election, but today’s poll is extremely encouraging and would see the SNP make very big gains at Westminster.
“Support of 52% for the SNP at Westminster is further proof that the referendum has changed Scottish politics forever.”
Former Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont quit last week, with MP Jim Murphy and MSPs Neil Findlay and Sarah Boyack having declared their intentions to replace her.
Speaking at Labour’s gala dinner in Glasgow last night, Mr Miliband said: “In the next six months I know the Scottish Labour Party will fight every hour and every day to deliver the changes the working people of Scotland need to improve their lives.
“And I will fight with you with every fibre of my being over these months to show how we can change Scotland.”