Caley Thistle have the advantage going into the second leg of Friday’s Premiership play-off against Partick Thistle.
The odds are stacked fully in ICT’s favour to advance to the semi-finals.
However, history shows if either of these Thistles are to advance to the top-flight, they will be the first to do so from their season-ending position.
Inverness finished third in the Championship, largely thanks to strong starts and finishes to their campaign.
Partick Thistle won the race for fourth place, showing just enough consistency to get over the line ahead of Raith Rovers.
On Tuesday, goals from Shane Sutherland and Austin Samuels wiped out a Robbie Crawford opener at Firhill to hand Billy Dodds’ team a 2-1 lead going into the second leg at the Caledonian Stadium on Friday.
Advantage: Caley Thistle 💪@austsamuels9 gives the Caley Jags the lead at the half way point in the @cinchuk Premiership play-offs!#cinchPrem | @ICTFC pic.twitter.com/K5jRWHAxgO
— SPFL (@spfl) May 4, 2022
League runners-up Arbroath will play the winners of the quarter-final next Tuesday and Friday, with the Angus club having home advantage in the second leg.
After that, it looks like St Johnstone, second-bottom of the Premiership, will be the opposing play-off finalists to decide who will be club 12 in the top-flight next season.
Dundee, five points adrift at the bottom, cling on to the hope of catching Saints with just three games left.
Fourth-placed finishers fall short
Dodds and his players are keen to stress the job of getting through against Partick is only half complete and they expect the Glasgow Jags to come at them all guns blazing in a bid to turn the tie.
History, however, is with Caley Thistle. Since these promotion play-offs were introduced in 2013/14, the Championship’s fourth-placed team has NEVER got through the quarter-finals.
Of course, we have yet to see a third or fourth-placed finisher from the second-tier make it all the way to the Premiership, so whoever emerges victorious on Friday will still have to become trail-blazers.
The list of fourth-placed clubs to make it no further than where Partick Thistle are now are:
2014 – Queen of the South lost to Falkirk
2015 – Queen of the South lost to Rangers
2016 – Raith Rovers lost to Hibernian
2017 – Morton lost to Dundee United
2018 – Dunfermline Athletic lost to Dundee United
2019 – Ayr United lost to Caley Thistle
2020 – no play-offs due to Covid
2021 – Dunfermline Athletic lost to Raith Rovers.
United killed off ICT in 2019 semis
Only once have ICT been involved in the play-offs and that ended at the semi-final stage in 2019.
John Robertson’s shattered side were crushed 4-0 on aggregate by Robbie Neilson’s Dundee United, who lost the final to St Mirren on penalties to be denied promotion.
It looked positive for third-placed Caley Thistle as a 3-1 win at Ayr United was followed by a 1-1 home draw to see off the Honest Men for a semi-final shot at United.
Paul McMullan’s second half goal at the Caledonian Stadium put league runners-up United in control with a 1-0 win in a game which also saw home midfielder Liam Polworth controversially shown a red card.
On to Tannadice just three nights later, and a hotly-disputed Nicky Clark penalty on the cusp of half-time doubled the Taysiders’ aggregate advantage. ICT defender Brad McKay was adjudged by referee Kevin Clancy to have handled the ball and the spot-kick was awarded.
That moment was a hammer-blow for Inverness and second half goals from Osman Sow and Pavol Safranko sunk the gutted Caley Jags, who were to face United again the following year after their own penalty pain against the Paisley Saints in the final.
Accies beating Hibs started drama
Only twice over seven Covid-free seasons have Championship clubs come through the play-offs to gain promotion to the Premiership.
That was Hamilton in the first year of 2014 and James McPake’s Dundee last season, who timed their run perfectly, beating Raith Rovers and Kilmarnock to make the step up.
Accies’ dramatic defeat of Hibs eight years ago is the double-header which remains the most discussed.
Hearts were relegated automatically from the top-flight in bottom place – after a 15-point deduction due to having been in administration made it too tall an order for Gary Locke’s (mainly) young guns.
And it was a nightmare for both capital clubs as the Leith side tumbled down the table to second-bottom place.
A double from Jason Cummings in a 2-0 win at New Douglas Park looked to have former Caley Jags boss Terry Butcher’s Hibees on course for survival.
However, Alex Neil’s Accies turned it around at Easter Road as goals from Jason Scotland and Tony Andreu squared matters at 2-2, with their equaliser coming seconds from the final whistle.
First leg Hibs star Cummings saw his decisive shoot-out spot-kick saved by keeper Kevin Cuthbert as Accies returned to the Premiership after three years outside it.
Hearts and Ross County have been promoted as champions during the past decade, as have Rangers and Hibs, although the latter two have experienced play-off pain too.
On the same weekend Caley Thistle won the 2015 Scottish Cup, Rangers were thumped 6-2 on aggregate against Motherwell in their play-off final.
Hibs lost to Rangers in that season’s semi-final then 12 months later were edged out 5-4 by Falkirk, who in turn were beaten in their final against Killie.
Five years and counting for ICT…
It is now five years since ICT tumbled out of the Premiership and they hope to face up to five massive matches in order to win their place back there.
Dodds and his opposite number, Partick Thistle manager Ian McCall have this week underlined their widely-shared view that the play-offs are weighed heavily in favour of the Premiership’s 11th club retaining their place.
It almost certainly looks like St Johnstone will take that dreaded spot above all-but-doomed Dundee and they will face the final over two legs, with the benefit of home advantage in the second match.
Inverness – or Partick – will have to come through six games to reach the promised land.
However, it seems as if Caley Thistle have a spring in their step and are ready for the challenge which should still be a stern one when Partick hit the Highlands on Friday.
The play-off roll of honour:
2013/14 – Championship runners-up Hamilton Accies
2014/15 – Premiership Motherwell
2015/16 – Premiership Kilmarnock
2016/17 – Premiership Hamilton Accies
2017/18 – Premiership Partick Thistle
2019/20 – no play-off due to Covid
2020/21 – Championship runners-up Dundee