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ANALYSIS: Why Caley Thistle must win four more crunch January fixtures

George Oakley in action for Caley Thistle against Queen's Park. Image: SNS Group
George Oakley in action for Caley Thistle against Queen's Park. Image: SNS Group

January remains packed with pressure matches for Caley Thistle, which will set the tone for the rest of their campaign.

The new year began with a stunning 6-1 win at home against north rivals Cove Rangers in the Championship on Monday – their biggest victory of the term so far.

Three more league games and a Scottish Cup tie will take the team into February and progress must continue to be made at Inverness.

For most of the season, head coach Billy Dodds has had eight to 10 key players missing through long-term injury.

Striker Shane Sutherland, right, has not played this season for ICT after being injured in the play-offs last season. Image: SNS Group

Guys who would walk into his starting 11 have been sidelined – including Scott Allardice, Roddy MacGregor, Shane Sutherland, Sean Welsh and Robbie Deas.

Those five stars alone were central in taking ICT to within 45 minutes of the Premiership in 2021, before they ran out of steam at St Johnstone in the play-off final in Perth.

To effectively mount a challenge for the title (or at the very least promotion) without key men has been testing to say the least and the board will have to find funds to allow Dodds to further add to his numbers this month

The loan signing of St Mirren winger Jay Henderson already looks like a smart move after the 20-year-old impressed on his debut against Cove.

Let us look at the next four games for the Caley Jags – which will dictate the direction of travel for the remainder of a tough season.

Saturday’s league trip to Gayfield

This Saturday, last year’s runners-up Arbroath host ICT, who finished third but edged them out of the play-offs on penalties at the quarter-final stage in a remarkable against-all-odds tie.

Dick Campbell’s Angus side have felt the impact of key players leaving Gayfield and they find themselves in a relegation tussle with Hamilton Accies right now.

The “fortress” beside the North Sea worked a treat for Arbroath last season and, in fact, ICT were the only away winners there in the league. But that has not been the case in 2022/23.

Caley Thistle drew 0-0 on Arbroath’s home turf in August in a contest ruined by strong winds.

On fireworks night in the Highlands, a 1-1 draw between these sides was a disappointment, but the result was hardly surprising – three of the six meetings between these rivals last season ended all-square.

Nathan Shaw opened the scoring for ICT against Arbroath in November, but Kieran Shanks quickly levelled for a 1-1 draw at the Caledonian Stadium. Image: Roddy Scott/SNS Group

It’s a match which matters for both teams, of course, but, for ICT, they have to dig out a win – even a scrappy 1-0 to take back north on Saturday, as too many dropped points against strugglers in the Championship have been costly.

Arbroath will be lifted by their surprise 4-2 win at Dundee on Monday, which knocked the Taysiders off top spot.

Spiders head north for league test

On Saturday, January 14, Owen Coyle’s impressive Queen’s Park – the new Championship leaders – come to the Caledonian Stadium looking to maintain their unbeaten record against Inverness this term.

On the first day of the Championship back in July, the newly-promoted Spiders deservedly bagged a 1-1 draw, in a display filled with attacking intent.

They’ve not snapped out of that kind of form and find themselves now as the side to catch.

When they took on Caley Thistle at Ochilview in November, they brushed aside the loss of a Billy Mckay opener to turn the tables for a 2-1 victory they also richly deserved.

Just as beating the teams lower than them is vital, given ICT’s position, they need to be winning head-to-heads against promotion rivals – and Queen’s are certainly that.

Change of focus – against same rivals

One week later, on January 21, Queen’s Park will be back at Inverness – but for Scottish Cup fourth round action.

Caley Thistle were the 2015 cup winners and Dodds set out with the intention of going deep into the competition this season, but neither he or Coyle will be thrilled to have been drawn together.

If Queen’s have won in the league the week before, they will travel back with confidence.

However, the same applies to Inverness – if they can see off the Glasgow side in the league for three precious Championship points, they’ll have the belief they can repeat the feat and reach round five of the Scottish Cup.

Run going all the way to Raith Rovers?

Raith Rovers in Kirkcaldy is the final fixture for Caley Thistle in January – and they will aim to extend their unbeaten league run against the Stark’s Park outfit to remain in promotion contention.

The Fifers have, amazingly, not defeated ICT in the league since October 2000. That’s a run of 23 successive meetings, although Raith have won cup-ties between the sides during that period.

Billy Mckay, right, made it 2-0 to ICT at Raith Rovers in September. Image: Craig Brown/SNS Group

Overall, Raith have only won five times in 36 meetings. However, grit and attitude will still be the bare minimum requirement from Inverness.

That’s exactly what was required when ICT won 2-0 at Raith in September thanks to a Scott Allardice spot-kick and last-gasp Billy Mckay goal.

This match falls into the same category as the Queen’s Park clash, whereby Caley Thistle must whip three points from a direct promotion rival before they host another on February 4 – when Dougie Imrie brings Morton to the Highlands.

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