The mythic mystery of the Old Course at St Andrews is no more.
Golf’s most precious artefact is unique. 600 years on from when it was first played, it’s still the favoured place for 150th version of the greatest championship in the sport.
But it’s also the most played and most known golf course on earth. It can still mystify the uninitiated – particularly those who habitually play the game through the air rather than on the ground – but there are far fewer surprises for the top players than there once were.
There is a little more scope for surprise this year. Not many have played it in as firm, fierce and fiery a condition as it will be this week. There are very few survivors from the similarly fast conditions of 2000 and 2005, when Tiger Woods won both times.
Woods, still ailing, won’t win this week, surely. But here’s five who I think could…
Rory McIlroy
BREAKING: Rory McIlroy has ruptured an ankle ligament less than 2 weeks out from the 2015 Open Championship. #TheOpen pic.twitter.com/jdD9VgwWyT
— Exclusive Sports (@Excl_Sports) July 6, 2015
It’s amazing to think that Rory is playing only his second Open at St Andrews. He was a short-odds favourite in 2015 to retain the Claret Jug before the most infamous game of five-a-sides in recorded history.
The time before that, in 2010, he started with a 63 and followed with an 80. Yet he still eventually finished third, eight behind Louis Oosthuizen. A 72 in that second round would have made things very interesting.
McIlroy has plenty of Old Course nous, and is playing as well as he has since his annus mirabilis of 2014. While the one caveat is he’s not the greatest wind player there is, this looks as good a destiny pick as you can get.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth almost won as an Old Course virgin in 2015, one shot out of the three-way play-off after a visit to the Valley of Sin on 18. That was when he was going for the third leg of a Grand Slam.
Since then, there’s been his Claret Jug at Birkdale, and plenty of scar tissue elsewhere. But his Open record is solid. As well as his win, he was the last to tee off on the final day in 2018, and was closest to Collin Morkawa last year.
Really, Spieth’s a sound each way bet for any Open at any venue. He has the intelligence to consistently pick the right option of the many available in links golf. And he’s one of the best long putters in the game, which is always a key requirement on the Old Course.
Tyrrell Hatton
🗣️"I HATE you!' 😡
Tyrrell Hatton speaking to his golf club after he found the water. We've all been there 😩pic.twitter.com/f0xDCqLLxy
— Sky Sports (@SkySports) July 5, 2022
Picking someone for an Open at St Andrews on the basis of their record in the annual Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is a dodgy business. It’s an entirely different place in late September – in July it’s always firmer underfoot, and there’s absolutely none of those friendly pro-am pins.
Yet the Dunhill has allowed a huge number of players to become intimately acquainted with the Old Course in ways they couldn’t before. Louis Oosthuizen wouldn’t have won in 2010 without his Dunhill experience. Playing the ADLC has to help, at least a bit.
The player with the best recent record at the Dunhill is the combustible Hatton, and it’s not even close. In the last five editions, he has two wins, two seconds (and he probably should have won both of those as well) and a tie for 15th.
On the same grounds, I picked Tommy Fleetwood in 2015 and he missed the cut. I think Hatton will do considerably better than that.
Xander Schauffele
Congratulations to JP McManus Pro-Am 2022 winner Xander Schauffele. It’s been a pleasure to have you with us! @jpmcmanusproam @XSchauffele #jpproam2022 #adaremanor pic.twitter.com/CzKB5FySTL
— Adare Manor (@TheAdareManor) July 5, 2022
Ignoring current form would be obtuse in the extreme. The diminutive Japanese-German-American Olympic champion arrives at St Andrews on the back of three successive wins. If you count the JP McManus Pro-Am, which was only two days but had a pretty tidy field.
Schauffele seems to have been fairly stressed out by his Scottish Open win. But resilience is a big part of him. He got close at Carnoustie in 2018 and at Augusta last year recovering from mid-round wobbles, and did it again at The Renaissance.
In terms of the mental game, Scot Robert MacIntyre was marveling at how assured Schauffele is after they were paired together last week.
Schauffele has a good shout at the moment to the unwanted title of Best Player Yet To Win A Major. Don’t be surprised if he leaves that field for good on Sunday.
Cameron Smith
If the BPYTWAM isn’t Schauffele, it’s the mulleted Aussie. He emerged at the Covid Masters and has been there or thereabouts just about everywhere ever since.
Smith hasn’t torn up the leaderboard of an Open yet, but played well at Royal Portrush and decently at Sandwich last year.
He has very little experience of the Old Course, but there’s a rich tradition of Australians doing well at St Andrews – Peter Thomson, Kel Nagle, Greg Norman, Mark Leishman in the play-off in 2015. The sandbelt courses of Melbourne are as close to Scottish links as anywhere on earth.
But what really attracts you to Smith is he’s one of the best putters there is. Holing out at St Andrews, when you’re going to have more than a few testing two-putts, is a big part of the battle, especially when the course is running fast as it should this week.