So, as the great Bobby Womack once asked, where do we go from here?
Saturday’s crushing let-down in Cardiff opened a huge hole in Scotland’s claim of stately progress up the ladder of world rankings and renown.
Instead it fulfilled the template of the Gregor Townsend years – some fair-to-substantial gains, but peppered by results and performances so poor that they almost entirely undo the good stuff.
Scotland “haven’t become a bad team overnight” we’ve heard, in the standard cliche. But before Saturday they weren’t an especially good team to start with, and the fall was a good deal shorter than some suggest.
As I mentioned at the weekend, I don’t think Scotland have been playing very well this season. They were somewhat fortunate to beat Australia and England and barely held off Japan.
The newly-developed defence and resilience are great. But you definitely got the impression in the autumn that other competing nations had advanced creatively more than the Scots.
One team that hadn’t, I thought, were Wales. I still don’t think they have, and expect England to do to them next week roughly what Ireland did a fortnight ago. The fact that Scotland couldn’t beat them – and were somewhat fortunate to keep it to three points – is a massive indictment.
It would be entirely, almost ludicrously Scottish for the Scots to beat France next week. These brainfart performances often produce a reaction in the next game, and everyone forgives them again.
But having spent three weeks of build up to the first block of two Six Nations games focusing on “backing up results” and then manifestly failing to do it, this can’t be brushed off as a mere blip. There’s a pattern that keeps repeating here, and it’s time to address it.
Here’s a few ideas…
Discipline!
9' | Dan Biggar kicks two early penalties to give Wales a 6-point lead in Cardiff
🏴 6 – 0 🏴#WALvSCO
— Scottish Rugby (@Scotlandteam) February 12, 2022
Asked about this on Friday, Stuart Hogg wondered aloud what the word actually meant and said “Trust is more important”. Well, Saturday showed trust only goes so far.
Scotland have conceded 13 penalties in both their first two matches. Not heinous, but not great either, and the context of the offences – so many silly ones at breakdown in midfield basically offering the opposition a free lineout throw in our 22 – matters.
Ireland did not concede a single penalty in the first half against Wales in week one, and as a result Wales had no platform at all into the game.
Townsend teams have always been heavily penalised, to the extent you believe he thinks it’s a fair trade-off for gains elsewhere. It’s really not.
Bring in Cam Redpath
🏴 Huge Congratulations to @camredpath on his selection for @Scotlandteam this weekend away to Wales in the @SixNationsRugby.
Best of luck Cameron!! 💙
— Bath Rugby (@BathRugby) February 10, 2022
Sione Tuipulotu was one of the few players who did himself justice in Cardiff, but I’m not even convinced 12 is his best role for Glasgow, let alone Scotland.
In any case I don’t think he’s the best foil they have for Finn Russell, and despite the lightning speed of revisionism for some on the stand-off, no-one is replacing him.
Sam Johnson suits Finn’s style better but I wouldn’t recall him, I’d bring back Cam Redpath. He’d be a better creative option, in terms of distribution and tactics, to take some of the heat off Finn.
He’s a good defender and can even jackal. And he’s going to be there for 10 years or more if he can stay fit. Now that Redpath’s had five full-fat games back from his long ACL recovery, he’s match-ready again.
Restore Scott Cummings
It's the flair for us 🤭#URC | @GlasgowWarriors pic.twitter.com/bMkib728qq
— United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial) February 11, 2022
A London-based colleague asked me after the England game if Cummings was injured again. No, he was just dropped, I related, to a look of disbelief.
Jonny Gray is Mr Dependable, good for all those tackles and carries and work rate, but the second row right now needs more dynamism than dependability.
That should be Cummings, if Grant Gilchrist can’t be shifted as the lineout organiser.
Get another breakdown enforcer
Scotland badly missed Jamie Ritchie, but his absence should not have been as crucial as it was. I think everyone watching was mystified why they picked Sam Skinner at 6 yet didn’t use him as a lineout option.
If Matt Fagerson is fit, I’d like to see him go to 6 and Magnus Bradbury at 8 for a better balance.
If Fagerson’s not available, Townsend could even be adventurous and go for the two 7s option, with Rory Darge getting the start. They’re going to have to threaten French ball on the deck to keep them at bay.
Blow-up the bam squad
It's time to hit the weights with Zander Fagerson and Pierre Schoeman at Oriam! 💪 pic.twitter.com/uOVR26I5wM
— Rugby on BT Sport (@btsportrugby) February 15, 2022
It was a fine idea. But even South Africa’s original bomb squad doesn’t work if the replacement front row doesn’t have the necessary impact. Remember the first Lions test last summer, for example.
Pierre Schoeman was maybe the most lively player afield in the final few minutes. He will start again as Rory Sutherland is out of the championship.
Zander first at tight-head followed by WP for the final quarter. Stuart McInally starts at hooker. Oli Kebble on the bench. No replacements until the hour mark.
Some questions about the Six Nations I can’t answer…
If Brian Moore is now considered too old to be an in-match analyst, why is Jonathan Davies still at it?
When did the WRU start using tapes on the PA to prompt the singing of songs at the Principality? The crowd used to do it themselves. Now they seem to be much more concerned with getting the pints in.
Where exactly is this Italian revival I read so much about?
When was the last time Eddie Jones’ pre-match banter actually worked exactly like he said?
Why are the Irish media and pundits so obsessed with Scotland supposedly “talking themselves up”? I haven’t heard a single Scottish player, coach or pundit ever talk themselves up. Why would we? We’ve actually lived this nonsense for 30 years.