Scotland’s tour squad to South America is a mixture of continuity and development, old reliables and promise, plus five of the Lions we all thought might be rested.
But clearly the decision to leave Stuart Hogg and Finn Russell behind was always going to create as much interest as who is actually going on the four-match trip.
Gregor Townsend, in discussing the squad, paid almost equal attention to others being given the summer off : Chris Harris, WP Nel, Stuart McInally and Fraser Brown. But we were only really interested in the X Factor duo.
Hogg’s captaincy depends on him
Stuart Hogg makes history with his 25th try, becoming Scotland's all-time try-scorer 🙌
Watch #SCOvJPN live on @primevideosport in the UK. pic.twitter.com/m4OcoojhLV
— Scottish Rugby (@Scotlandteam) November 20, 2021
It’s funny how in one sport a few cans for a national captain on an open-top bus three days out from a crucial game is largely accepted, while in another a truncated night out in Edinburgh a week from a game can result in a threat to his post. But maybe things have calmed down since March.
Hogg is – predictably and quite rightly – rested from this tour. He’s hardly had any time off since Covid. Townsend could have endorsed him as skipper in the autumn but didn’t, saying it was his “hope and belief’.
That seems to be partly because it’s still not clear whether Hogg wants to continue. The head coach did ponder on whether they might find someone else they preferred.
But it’s unlikely to be the old reliable taking the reins this summer; Grant Gilchrist, who is not an automatic choice when all second rows are fit.
Jamie Ritchie might have been a candidate, but he won’t tour because he hasn’t recovered from a hamstring injury. That happened in the first Six Nations game against England, when all things seemed possible.
In the end a real decision’s postponed until November. My guess is that if Hogg wants to keep doing it – having cooled his temper a little since March – then he will.
Finn’s re-energising
He's a player who divides opinion but there's few 10's out there who can pull off the 'I'm disinterested & don't want the ball' look before then doing something spectacular than Finn Russell!
Incredible finish by Graham too! #WALvSCO #SixNations2022 pic.twitter.com/X0KGCKgPWv
— Geraint Davies (@daviesGDD) February 13, 2022
Meanwhile Finn Russell will stay home, mostly because of a knee injury. Townsend spoke of increased mental strains on players – without directing his comments directly at Finn, even if it was in answer to a question about him.
There’s a compelling perception that Finn lost his way a little through either fatigue, injury, lack of conditioning or all three in the second half of the season.
All things considered it’s definitely better for him to have a summer off. Especially given the slog that is the French Top14 season.
So who’ll replace the missing men?
Joe Marchant that is a class above! 🤩
Globetrotters stuff from @Harlequins! Incredible footballing skills, awareness, and ability from Marchant to find Huw Jones!
Unreal rugby! 👏#GallagherPrem pic.twitter.com/M7dOn6gBIe
— Rugby on BT Sport (@btsportrugby) April 29, 2022
The headlong rush to convert Blair Kinghorn to 10 will be given full vent in South America, as was probably always planned.
Even if Adam Hastings is restored and Townsend says he still sees Rory Hutchison as a possibility there (although he hasn’t played him anywhere for three years, despite great form for Northampton).
As Townsend pointed out, Hogg has been the first name on the team sheet literally and figuratively for 10 years. Sean Maitland subbed a couple of times for him, and Darcy Graham against Tonga last November.
The front runner this summer is surely Huw Jones, recalled and in searing form for Harlequins at 15. Townsend sees Hutchison as a possibility at 15 too, and Glasgow’s Ollie Smith could be an outsider. It won’t be Kinghorn, who they see as a 10 only now.
Replacing Chris Harris should be easier – it should be Mark Bennett, who has been outstanding for Edinburgh all season. Rory Darge will be fit for the Puma tests and Matt Fagerson is back.
With Hamish Watson that’s a dynamic but light-ish back row. Perhaps Sam Skinner might offer more ballast and the uncapped but impressive Ben Muncaster is coming up fast.
Elsewhere, Scotland will need the staples – Schoeman and Sutherland, George Turner, Zander and Ali Price, Darcy and Duhan – to beat a Puma team on the up under new coach Michael Cheika.